darrell,

Well, an underdog guy in a record year for favorites is having his problems of late. Last week was another disappointing weekend. After a scorching start to the season in which we started 67% over the first 11 weeks, we've fallen back to 58% on the season. Still very good overall but disappointing given how we started. Favorites were again on fire last week, going 12-4. The record-setting pace for favorites continue as they are pushing 60% on the season - absolutely unheard of. Four picks this Sunday on which I've taken into account the strange season.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	N/A	0%	($0)
MLB	14-11 last 25 picks	56%	+$1160
NFL	9-7 last 16 picks	56%	+$660
WNBA	24-8 last 32 picks	75%	+$3130
TOTAL			+$4950

My Week 14 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

*BUFFALO +3.5 over New England (1:00 Eastern)

The lone underdog pick this week will again make some nervous. Last week we faded New England laying 10 points to the Jets. New England won by 13, covering - making it only the second time out of seven that I have been wrong in picking Pats games this year. We'll give it another go this week. The Jets couldn't muster more than 3 points in that game which surprised me. Entering that game, New England was allowing opponents nearly 400 yards per game. No wonder with 9 players on injured reserve including six defensive backs. I guess the Jet's 10 players on IR was too much to overcome. Needless to say, that New England victory didn't overly impress me. New England is a better team than Buffalo... barely. With this game being in Buffalo, I give the edge to the Bills. I know New England is 7-5 and winners of three of their last four. But, those victories came against the Jets, New Orleans and Miami. Two of them were at home. New England's win last week has pushed this line above the magic 3 points. But, teams off a dominating win like New England had typically underperform the following week. In fact, New England qualifies for a related situation here that is 4-2 this year and over 90% lifetime. Despite Buffalo's problems this year, they are actually 5-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS at home! Their one outright loss came against a very good Carolina team. They are playing great defense at home, holding opponents to just 11.7 points per game. I see Buffalo keeping this one close. One star on the Bills plus the 3.5.

**CAROLINA -5.5 over Tampa Bay (1:00 Eastern)

Carolina is a top 10 team this season while Tampa Bay is... well... not. Tampa has a great defense but Carolina is much more balanced and explosive. Carolina made a statement within the division last week by dismantling the Falcons. This week they can make another one by taking a 2 game lead if they beat Tampa. DeShaun Foster had a breakout game last week, putting up 131 yards on the ground on 24 carries. The Panthers have quietly won 8 of their last 9 games. Chris Simms has shown steady improvement but he's going up against the league's 4th best defense here. A defense ranked second against the run that is going to put the game on young Chris Simms' shoulders. Tampa beat New Orleans 10-3 last week but in that game they were actually outgained 256-280. If not for their 4-0 turnover difference, they would have lost - to the Saints! That doesn't instill confidence. In December, teams that have allowed less than 10 points in two straight games hit at about 70% ATS including 1-0 so far this year. Two stars on the Panthers to win big.

**Washington -3.5 over Arizona (4:05 Eastern)

I was on both Washington and Arizona last week. I stated that Washington's a pretty good ballclub and they exposed the weak Rams. I was on Arizona, too, against a terrible San Francisco club. I mentioned last week that without pressure, Kurt Warner is a very good quarterback. Without the pressure, he can find his very good receivers and score points. That's why we backed the Cards last week against San Francisco and two weeks ago vs. St. Louis. Those were two of the worst defenses in the league, though. Throw that all out this week when Warner and the Cardinals face the Redskins. Washington has the 9th ranked defense and they are going to bring pressure against Warner. Warner doesn't do so hot in those situations (gets in his head) and I expect a number of mistakes from him this week. The Skins are better than their record indicates. Five of their six losses have been by less than a touchdown and three of them by a field goal or less. They've played a bear of a schedule having faced Chicago, Dallas, Seattle, Denver, KC, the Giants and San Diego! In contrast, against teams the caliber of Arizona (SF and STL), Washington is 2-0 with an average score of 38-13. Against good (winning) teams, Arizona is 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS. Washington in a rout for two stars.

*SEATTLE -15.5 over San Francisco (4:05 Eastern)

This game qualifies as the "line can't be big enough" game of the week. While San Francisco has had a few surprise games this year, for the most part they've been a great team to fade. They are just THAT bad. When you rank dead last in the league in both offense and defense and have a rookie quarterback, it's about as bad as it gets. I mean, there are bad teams every year but not often does at team rank worst in the league on both sides of the ball at the same time. The Niners are 2-10 and 5-7 against the number. They covered the big number against Seattle three weeks ago, losing by 2 as a 12.5 point underdog. But, that game was at home. Their 5-7 ATS record shrinks to 1-4 when we strip out their home games. As a big dog of greater than a touchdown, they are 0-3 ATS on the road. This game is such a mismatch that the spread couldn't be big enough. San Francisco is the worst team in the league while Seattle is top 5. Shaun Alexander should rack up a ton of yards and a ton of TDs. He rested most of the second half on Monday night so he'll be fresh. Letdown game for Seattle you say? I don't think so. This team is still fighting for respect. They were one dropped pass away from doing some damage in the playoffs last year so they know how important it is to keep winning here. And, by barely escaping with a 2 point win in the first matchup, how can you let down? The Seahawks qualify for a situation that hasn't come up yet this year but is 69% lifetime including 5-2 last year. That situation backs a road team that scored the most points last week and won in a blowout. One star on Seattle minus the big number.