We're getting into the home stretch in the NFL. The weather's getting colder and the games more important. Lots of important matchups this weekend with playoff implications.

My Week 13 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck!

*PITTSBURGH -3 over Cincinnati (1:00 Eastern)

Pittsburgh's got to be disappointed after their performance on Monday Night. Big Ben definitely looked rusty. After facing the league's best team, things get no easier as they now face the Bengals in a must-win division matchup. This game probably decides the AFC North title. The Steelers, who beat the Bengals earlier this year, need this game to avoid falling two games back in the division. They hammered the Bengals earlier in Cincinnati by running right through them. Willie Parker gets the start again for the Steelers. In the first game he racked up 131 yards (Steelers got 221 on the ground total). Carson Palmer has been playing as good as any QB in the league this season. He's had 10 great games out of 11. The one exception was against the Steelers. Palmer has yet to beat Pittsburgh. The big difference here is defense. Pittsburgh boasts the 8th ranked defense and 4th ranked rushing defense. Cincinnati's is in the bottom third of the league. Cincinnati's been rolling but home teams vs. an opponent off two very high scoring home games hit at 67% ATS. Also, teams off very weak offensive performances on the road bounce back very nicely ATS the following game, hitting 65% ATS. I expect Pittsburgh, behind the leadeship of Cowher, to bounce back from their Colts loss in a virtual must-win for them at home and come out on top. One star on Pitt minus the field goal.

***DETROIT +2 over Minnesota (1:05 Eastern)

If you listen to the media "experts" and the guy at the watercooler this week, the Lions have absolutely no shot here. Well, it kind of makes sense, right? They are in turmoil - having fired their coach and they have players infighting. The Lions got absolutely hammered on national TV on Thanksgiving. They looked worse than awful. Minnesota on the other hand has pulled off this season's biggest turnaround, going from 2-5 to win 4 straight. They've got a new QB who is winning. Shouldn't Minnesota be favored by more here? Smells like a trap. And I think it is. First off, in regards to the Lions, what team doesn't have infighting? It happens all the time. In this case, a defensive player called out a quarterback who hasn't won - ever. That QB doesn't have much support within the team and has been benched. So, who cares about the exchange of words? Meaningless. The coach got fired but that's not necessarily a bad thing for this week. They were losing - bad. Since Mariucci took over, the Lions had the league's worst record. I suspect many players feel some relief and hope this week. Dick Jauron takes over, at least for a while, and he has 4 years NFL head coaching experience. He made a decisive move right away, benching Joey Harrison for Jeff Garcia. Right move. Garcia should definetly be the starter. Last week's loss to Atlanta on Turkey Day has made everyone quickly forget how Detroit has performed at home this year. Prior to that game, they were 4-1 at home, holding opponents to under 90 yards rushing per game! I expect them to return to that form and give Minnesota fits. I expect them to rally behind their new coach, with the world saying they have no chance. Minnesota has turned things around nicely but I don't think they are really that good. Three of their four recent wins came against mediocre teams (Cleveland, Green Bay and this Detroit team on the road). They easily could have lost two of the four, winning each by a late field goal. Despite their nice little "run", the Vikings still rank among the seven worst offenses and they have the 4th worst defense in the entire league! I know it sounds crazy on the surface to a lot of folks but I like Detroit quite a bit to win here. Three stars on the Lions.

*Arizona -3 over San Francisco (4:05 Eastern)

The league's worst offense gets their rookie back. Alex Smith will take the helm but it doesn't matter. San Francisco is horrible no matter who is behind center. In the four games he's played this season, he's 23-for-50 with no touchdowns and five picks. With his injury, he hasn't had the chance to take enough snaps to get in a groove. Expect him to again struggle on Sunday. His Center, Jeremy Newberry is out and I've stated in this newsletter multiple times that next to QB, an injury to the Center has the biggest impact, in my opinion, on a game. The Niner defense is as bad as their offense. Like the offense, they rank last in the league. The Cardinals are a pretty bad team too, but they have hope. Against this San Fran defense, I expect them to have a lot of success, especially with Warner to Boldin and Fitzgerald. Against bad passing defenses, this offense can do some damage (see big upset win over St. Louis two weeks ago). Warner struggles under pressure (ala Jacksonville last week) but without pressure, he is quite good. What we're getting here is a team as bad as it gets (last in offense and defense) - a team that has lost 9 of 10. And, we are only laying 3 points. Nice gift. 'Zona for one star.

*Washington -3 over ST. LOUIS (4:05 Eastern)

St. Louis has been bad on the road for a while now. But, in years past, you could count on them being tough at home. Not this year as they are just 2-3 ATS on the home turf this season. They'll be starting either a hobbled 2nd string Jamie Martin or 3rd string Ivy Leaguer Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitz played nicely last week in relief but against the Skins? No way. Washington enters with the 10th ranked defense. That's compared to St. Louis' 29th ranked D. St. Louis remains overvalued in the eyes of the public (somehow). They are really a team that is no better than about 25 other NFL teams. They pulled off a very improbable win last week against Houston. They needed two scores within the last minute and thanks to an onside kick recovery, got it. Don't forget they were trailing that game 24-3 at the half. If you are EVER trailing the Houston Texans 24-3, you have major issues. Washington, outside of one game against the New York Giants, have been in every single game this season. That loss aside, their other five losses have come by a total of 19 points. They are better than their record indicates. Favorites off an ATS no-cover vs. a team off an ATS cover hit at about 67% ATS in the NFL. One star on the Skins.

**NY Jets +10 over New England (4:15 Eastern)

I'm 5-1 this season picking New England games. Here's another one I like because the spread is again out of whack. This Patriots team should not be laying 10 points to anyone right now. They've only layed this many one other time - to New Orleans two weeks ago. We were on the Saints in that one and they covered. Lots of similarities here. A horrible team struggling in every facet of their game limps into New England. In years past you could bet the house on the Pats at home, especially against bad teams. But, this year, New England is just 1-4 ATS at Foxboro! They are 3-4 ATS as favorites. They are allowing 3 points more per game than they are scoring. Their defense is worse than every other team in the league, save San Francisco. And, they have no running game. Granted, Tom Brady and Bill Bellichick have been amazing to win six games this season, with all the injuries and defections. But, they should not be laying 10 points - not to the Jets and not to anyone. I won't even go into the Jets here as I don't need to. This is strictly a play against a subpar team laying double digits. Two stars on the Jets to score enough to keep this one within reach.