darrell,

Happy Thanksgiving!

We suffered our fifth losing week out of 15 last week. New Orleans and Arizona were winners as big dogs but we dropped Cincinnati and Green Bay. Overall on the season, we are 60% on all picks (58-39).

Favorites Setting Records
NFL favorites are still ridiculously hot, hitting 56% on the season. How significant is that? It's huge! It's the single highest win rate for favorites in last two decades! The next closest since 183 was 53.52% in 1990. Only twice in last 22 years has it been 53.0% or higher. The average win rate for favorites over the past two decades is 48.24%. So, at 56%, we're seeing an 8% absolute difference but a 17% relative difference than the average of the past 20 years!

Big week with two picks on Thursday and six more on Sunday.

My Week 12 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

**DETROIT +3 over Atlanta (Thursday 12:30 Eastern)

Two home puppies on Turkey day. Can Detroit carve up another kind of bird - a Falcon- on Thanksgiving? I think so! You know I am not a big fan of the Falcons. I have believed them overrated dating back to last season. They have talent on offense for sure. Virtually no one can stop their offensive attack. But, their defense is well not good enough to allow for elite-team status. The last two weeks they scored 25 and 27, respectively, yet lost both games outright. They now have to travel to Detroit on Thanksgiving where the Lions are 11-6 SU and ATS. And, that record was notched with some pretty bad teams. This year Detroit is better than they have been in a while. At home they are 4-1 ATS. Detroit gets Dre Bly back at corner for this game and LB Boss Bailey and S Terrance Holt are also expected to return from injury. Jeff Garcia may also get the start. Hotlanta can run the ball and should have success again in that realm. But, Detroit is giving up just 80 yards rushing per game at home this season so they have a shot of keeping it from getting ugly. And, Atlanta has the 5th worst pass offense and a mediocre run defense. That's not worth laying 3 points on the road on Turkey day. We'll take Detroit plus the points for two stars.

**DALLAS +2.5 over Denver (Thursday 4:15 Eastern)

Denver is sure impressive this year and it takes some cajones to go against them right now. But, this is the time. Denver is coming off a nationally televised pasting of the Jets 27-0. Just as going into Detroit on Thanksgiving and winning is tough, so is going into Big D and walking away with a W. Denver is beating up on both good and bad teams at home. And, they are taking care of bad teams on the road. But, they really haven't proven themselves on the road vs. good teams. They beat Jacksonville on the road but lost to the Giants this year. Over their last seventeen road games against winning teams, they are just 5-12 ATS. Dallas has a strong committment to the run which will serve them well in this game. They have dominated time of possession, especially at home. This keeps the pressure off of Drew Bledsoe which is key to Dallas winning. It's why the Boys are 7-3 at this juncture. One of those losses was a stupid pass by Bledsoe. That's why you see Bill Parcells stick to the run, even when Julius Jones went down. The key to staying with Denver is to not let them run all over you. Dallas hasn't allowed a 100 yard rusher since week 4. Denver has gotten up on teams early this season and forced them to pass a lot to catch up. Dallas starts very strong, especially on defense so I don't expect that to happen here. Two stars on the Cowboys.

**HOUSTON +4 over St. Louis (1:00 Eastern)

When will everyone figure this out? The Rams are horrible on the road. They are 1-4 SU and ATS this season away from home. Dating back to last year, they are 2-10 SU &
ATS. It doesn't get much worse than that. Both of those ATS wins were as an underdog. Yet today they are a road favorite. Yes, I know - this is Houston. But, St. Louis just can't be backed on the road, especially without their starting QB. St. Louis' defense, ranked 29th, is the real problem. We faded them last week because of that. They gave up 372 yards and 27 first downs to the Cardinals - the CARDINALS! Their hearts are not in it right now either. They have no shot at the division and are likely out of the playoffs and they've got dirty laundry airing about how dysfunctional the team and management really are. And, that was a devastating loss last week. Capers will have his team ready. With him as coach, the Texans are 13-4 ATS after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games and Caper-led teams are 19-4 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Houston was hammered last week but that's a perfect set up here. Home dogs that play on grass that had 40 points scored against them in their last game are 2-1 ATS this season and 69% lifetime. And, teams that lost by 21+ points vs. an opponent that allowed 25+ points two straight games are 2-0 this season and 68% lifetime. The Rams have given up 28+ points in four out of five road games this season. We'll back the home dog here for two stars.

**KANSAS CITY -3 over New England (1:00 Eastern)

We've selectively gone against New England a few times this season with great results. Here's another good opportunity as we lay just three with a good team at home. New England's injury problems continue. Center Dan Koppen is gone and Corey Dillon again got injured and is questionable for this game as are WR David Givens and TE Daniel Graham, FB Patrick Pass, and LB Willie McGinest. Not all will be sidelined but probably all won't play or be at 100%. This line is lower than it could be based on two-straight wins for New England for the first time all season. But, KC showed last week what they can do against a bad defense. And, New England's defense is bad. It's worse than all other teams in the league save San Francisco and worse than KC's opponent of last week - the Texans. Willie Roaf is expected back for this game which will give KC's offense a big boost. I expect a lot of scoring by Kansas City in this one and New England, even with Tom Brady, will find it hard to keep up in one of the toughest places to play in all the NFL. Two stars on KC.

**TENNESSEE -7.5 over San Francisco (1:00 Eastern)

Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart probably care more about this game than 99% of the public. The loser probably gets the first pick in the draft and if it's Tennessee, they'll be looking for a quarterback while San Francisco doesn't need one with Alex Smith in the wings. San Francisco has put together a few suprisingly good performances this year - all at home. They beat St. Louis in their opener, scared Dallas in week 3, beat Tampa Bay in week 9, and nearly upset Seattle last week. On the road, however, they are 1-4 ATS and have averaged 11 points per game while giving up 36 per. Yes, they've played some pretty good teams away from home but even Arizona put a 17 point spanking on them. Hard to back Tennessee at -7.5 but even harded to pass on the chance to go against such a truly awful road team. San Francisco is just that bad. Two stars on the Titans.

**Miami +7 over OAKLAND (4:05 Eastern)

The Dolphins have hit rock bottom so it's time to back them here. They've dropped three straight and six of seven. They were shut out 22-0 last week by a mediocre team. It's times like this that it's toughest to take that ugly underdog but we need to muster enough will to back the Fins here. After a game like that, players and coaches are embarrassed and have heard about it all week. They'll put on a much better show this week as a result. Head coach Nick Saban challenged his players this week. "We want to see guys compete so we can know whether they need to be here, we want them to be here and if they are the kind of people we want" Saban said. This is a sandwhich game for Oakland. They are off three important, high-intensity games (divisional opponents KC and Denver and a stiff test against Washington). And they have a divisional game coming up against San Diego next week. This is the least important of the four games for the Raiders who are feeling pretty good about themselves after winning last week as a six-point underdog. And, this system has been exceptional this season: Teams off a road game in which they scored less than 10 points are 9-1 ATS. Miami for two stars.

**Jacksonville -3.5 over ARIZONA (4:05 Eastern)

The Jags have found some offense (finally). They've topped 30 points two weeks in a row now. Arizona won as a big underdog last week. We knew they were in a great situation there against an overrated St. Louis team that was ripe for the picking. And, we knew a motivated Kurt Warner would do well against his former team. But, this is not St. Louis' horrible defense. This is the Jags. They have the top pass defense in the league, allowing just 160 yards per game through the air. Warner won't find as much success this week. Outside of their game at Indianapolis, Jacksonville has put up 26, 20, 21, and 38 points on the road this season. Their record in those 4 games = 3-1 SU and ATS. Against teams the caliber of Arizona (Jets, Texans, Ravens and Titans), Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU. Jacksonville is one of the better teams in the league and this is a pretty big mismatch that isn't reflected enough in the spread. Jacksonville minus the points for two stars.

**NY JETS +1.5 over New Orleans (8:30 Eastern)

It takes a team as bad as the Jets to force the linesmakers to favor the Saints on the road. How crazy is this? New Orleans is 2-8 and losing by over ten points per game on average. They've covered the spread in two road games this season. One was Carolina in week one which we chalk up to the "win one for the citizens of New Orleans" factor. The other was last week against New England. That one was due to a much inflated line as discussed in this newsletter last week. In this one I don't think they deserve to be the chalk. Especially in a nationally televised Sunday night game. The Saints are a pissed off bunch - and not in a good way. Just look at any shot of Jim Haslett's face this season - any one. Haven't seen him smile - not once! The hated owner wants to move the team and Joe Horn is taking pot shots at the Commish. They are on a six game skid. Things just aren't good. There are no good vibes and that makes it tough to march into New York and win this one. They aren't clicking in any facet of the game and the breaks do all seem to be going against them. They had a chance to win last week but Aaron Brooks was intercepted in the end zone on the last play of the game. I do think that this team, at this point in the season, expects to lose. Meanwhile, the Jets see an opportunity for a win here. I also like backing teams off a shutout loss. They come back determined to not lay another egg. Teams that have scored 14 or less on average over the course of the season and in each of the past two weeks are very good bets the following week. Two stars on the J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets.