darrell,

Thanks to two big 3-star wins on Seattle and Dallas, we posted our 10th winning week out of 14 this year - 71%.

I mentioned last week that a correction was coming and this just may be the week! After one of the worst weekends ever for sportsbooks in week 9 (just four underdogs covering), the books did better in week 10 but the favorites again came out on top. Home dogs again lost, going 1-2. The set-up for this week is near perfect. On Sunday we have our November NFL Game of the Month.

What does winning feel like? A lot like losing. Check out the Dog Pound article below which may surprise you!

My Week 11 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

How to Lose at Sports Betting
Why the impatient gambler loses

What's the difference between winning and losing? Not much.

Here are some probabilities, presented so you can get a feel of what winning feels like. The best way to describe it? It feels like losing! Yes, you read that right it feels like losing, and that is why most gamblers crumble to the psyche, that initializes their demise. Let me explain:

Let's say your having success gambling. You are a long-term 55% handicapper, yet somehow it doesn't feel like it is supposed to feel.

Here is your answer:

Let's say you average between 3-5 plays a day, let's say 4 plays a day. If you are a 55% gambler making 4 plays a day this is your statistical expectation:

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that the chance you'll have a winning day, after the juice/vig is considered is less than 50/50! To have a winning day in this scenario, you need to win 3 or 4 out of 4. The chance of that is happening 39.1% (29.95% + 9.15%). So, over 60% of the time you will be losing.

Now you can see where the problem lies. A gambler goes 2-2 on his well capped plays, but after a 2-2, or 1-3, or the rare 0-4 decides he needs to make money for the day, and plays a not so well advantaged capped out game. Unconsciously he has just reduced his chances of being a 55% capper, even though he is!

It goes beyond money management, it takes a substantial amount of disipline, to accept losing 60.9% of the time, in order to win. WHY? Because it feels like losing! Until this is understood, the sportsbettor, even the one that can hit a winning percentage, as is ahead of most of his peers, will show a loss at years end.

Begin to manage your sports wagering like a business, that doesn't need a good day, or a good week, or even a good month, but needs to show a profit at years end. If you can cap out 55%+ this is the only way it can be done!

Remeber:

• Even at 60% winners you lose 52.48% of all days you bet!
• Counterintuiative as it may sound, winning is losing...But don't fight the losing days. There will be many of them.

More Sports Betting Articles From The Dog

**Arizona +9.5 over ST. LOUIS (1:00 Eastern)

The first of my three Sunday dogs. This week is the first one all season that I feel like we are really getting value on multiple underdogs and this Arizona represents the best of the early games. We get an overrated huge favorite against a team that has played like crap. But, the team that has played like crap has a QB with a lot of extra "want" in this one. After floundering while he was out, the Cardinals now have Kurt Warner back under center. He threw for 359 yards last week against Detroit. They are likely to have Anquan Boldin back here as well. This Arizona offense is leaps and bounds better with those two playing vs. without. With Warner throwing to Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, the Arizona offense has the potential to score, especially against the third worst defense in the league. And, do you think Kurt Warner wants this one? You bet! The Rams basically discarded him like a piece of used luggage. He wants nothing more than to go into St. Louis and play well as the starter. He played well in the first meeting with his old club back in week 2. He threw for 327 yards as the Cards lost by just 5 points. This one means more though, being in St. Louis. Warner had his best game as a Cardinal last week and should just now be getting comfortable with this offense. St. Louis is normally tough at home but they had the wind taken out of their sail last week in a blowout loss to Seattle. They are now 3 games back and know they have virtually no chance at winning their division. After that HUGE game, they will find it VERY hard to get up for this one. I expect the Rams to sleep walk through much of this game. The Cards have dropped four of their last five games and under Dennis Green, they have never lost a sixth of seven against the spread, going 6-0 in this situation. Arizona is bad but St. Louis is simply not 9.5 points better. When things are going as bad as can be for a team like Arizona, and you have a public favorite like St. Louis, and favorites have been hitting like clockwork, you have a prime chance for major value on the undervalued underdog.  Two stars on Arizona.

*New Orleans +10 over NEW ENGLAND (1:00 Eastern)

New England showed grit again, winning last week in a game they could have lost. That's the Belichick / Brady difference. Without those two guys, the Pats would likely be 3-6 right now instead of 5-4. But, that win set us up nicely for this game. Similar to the Arizona game, this is a situation of a public favorite giving way too many points against a doormat team. No one wants to touch the Saints right now given how bad and erratic they have been. Heck, New England is still a playoff team, right? And, they are at home. Who cares? As cited here when analyzing the Week 9 Monday Night game against Indy, this New England team is a shell of their former selves. If the existing injuries weren't enough (won't go over them again but you can see my thoughts here), they lost their center Dan Koppen for the season last week. And, Corey Dillon remains severely hobbled. Oh my goodness! It doesn't get any worse than this folks - really. I have NEVER seen a team so injury-decimated as this team. And, in my humble opinion, the center is the second most important position on the field - after quarterback. A missed snap or a few missed blocks can change the outcome of the game completely. New England comes back strong after a loss when their backs are seemingly against the wall but after a win this season they are 0-fer. With all of the injuries, this defense is giving up more yards per game than any other team outside of San Francisco. The Saints should score enough here to keep it closer than 10. I expect them to come out focused and hungry after their bye. Underdogs of 6+ points off a bye, if they had 3+ consecutive losses going into the off week, are a very good bet in the NFL. One star on New Orleans plus the points.

*****CINCINNATI +6 over Indianapolis (4:15 Eastern)

Two years ago Cincinnati hosted a 9-0 team in a game in which the Bengals were posted as 6 point underdogs. Sound familiar? I absolutely loved the Bengals in that game against Kansas City, predicting that they'd cover and win the game. They did both. This game reminds me of that one in a lot of ways. In that 2003 matchup, Cincinnati saw a golden opportunity to show the league and the nation that they were no longer the league's doormat. In this one, they see a similar opportunity - it's just at another level. Obviously they are no longer a terrible team. But are they an elite team? This is their chance to deliver an emphatic YES! Cincinnati is for real this year and they want this game bad. Don't underestimate that single point. They will be up for this game like no other this season. Sure, Indy wants it too but not nearly as bad as they wanted that New England win the week before last. That was Indy's regular season Super Bowl. This is Cincinnati's. Emotion goes to Cincy. What about strength? Indianapolis is certainly taking their opponents by storm. They are winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. They are 9-0 and no opponent has gotten closer than 7 points. But, who have they played? They have the absolute worst strength-of-schedule in the league. That's right - they have played the easiest schedule of all 32 teams. They've gotten Baltimore, Cleveland, Tennessee, San Francisco, St. Louis, New England and Houston twice! The ONLY team they've played with a winning record is Jacksonville, a game which they won at home by 7 points, scoring only 10 in that game. I am not saying the Colts aren't a great team. But I am saying they have yet to prove they can beat a very good team in convincing fashion. Laying six points on the road against one of the top teams in the league - a motivated opponent - is too much. The public just looks at Indy's perfect record, (misleading) stats, and the star-filled, high-octane roster and assumes they will post yet another blowout. But not us. We know better. We know that Cincy is equally strong and has been focused on this for weeks, intensely so for the last two. We know that Indianapolis can't keep up their "perfect" level of play forever. And, we know Indy has got to be feeling pretty content right now at 9-0 and coming off a MONSTER win against New England. Palmer, Johnson and Johnson can hold their own against Manning, Edge and Harrison. It should be chilly and may be a little rainy in Cincy in the late afternoon. Just what Peyton doesn't want. Five stars on the Bengals in this one as they cover the spread and very possibly win the game outright.