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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
NFL Football Premium Edition
2005 Week 10 Monday
 

Good luck in tonight's game.

My Week 10 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORTWINS-LOSSES%NET
CFB 9-4 last 13 picks 69%+$1330
MLB 28-22 last 50 picks 56%+$1610
NFL 17-11 last 28 picks 61%+$1170
TOTAL  +$4110

Good luck!

The Wunderdog

 
 Premium Picks

***Dallas +3 over PHILADELPHIA (9:00 Eastern)

The T.O. saga is (almost) finally behind the Eagles. But, without him on the field, what chance do these guys really have? They will be better off without him over the long haul but his absence hurts their chances tonight against the Cowboys. They are 0-3 without him in the lineup since he came aboard. I don' think they should be laying 3 points to a better team. Even with Owens in the lineup, this team has looked like a shell of themselves. McNabb has been hurt and off in his passing and Mike Martz seems to have come back re-incarnated as Andy Reid. Passing over 65% of the time? That's a recipe for disaster. And, Reid has been as hard-headed about it as Martz - refusing to go back to the run, even when everyone is telling him he should. Heavy passing teams rarely do well in the NFL. Period. Those that committ to the run, do very well. Dallas committs. Dallas has run the ball 251 times this season to Philadelphia's 155. That's a 62% difference and one of the main reasons to back the Boys tonight. Dallas has faced stiffer competition than the Eagles and come out on top. The Cowboys have beaten the Giants, Chargers and crushed this Philadelphia squad a few weeks ago. They barely lost to Seattle and Washington. Philadelphia, meanwhile, have looked pretty bad the past few weeks. After losing 33-10 to Dallas, they squeaked by San Diego on a blocked fieldgoal-return-for-TD. They then got hammered by Denver and lost to Washington. Dallas is the better team. Even if Reid sees the light and tries to run tonight, he may not get much of a chance. Dallas has held it's last four opponents to an average of 63 yards rushing. And two of those opponents (Giants & Seattle) were very good rushing teams - unlike Philly. The Cowboys have the fifth ranked defense and sixth ranked offense in the league. Philly has the worst rushing game and 26th ranked defense. Sure, Philly will be fired up to show what they can do post-TO. But, the Cowboys know that and Parcells is one of the best in-division coaches in NFL history. The wrong team is favored here. Three stars on the underdog plus the field goal.

Resources

NFL Football Resources

  This week's computer predictions
  Up-to-Date NFL ATS Records
  NFL Game-of-the-Week Preview
  Live NFL Football Lines
  Latest NFL News
  2005 Team Wins Predictions

  2005 NFL Preview

Pass It On
How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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