NFL Football
Premium Edition
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2005
Week 10 Monday
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Good luck in tonight's game.
My Week 10 NFL Computer Simulations are
available for viewing. These simulations are based
on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands
of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping
- not a replacement. The computer can't take into
account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.
| WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET | | CFB |
9-4 last 13 picks |
69% | +$1330 |
| MLB |
28-22 last 50 picks |
56% | +$1610 |
| NFL |
17-11 last 28 picks |
61% | +$1170 |
| TOTAL | | | +$4110 |
Good
luck!

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***Dallas +3 over PHILADELPHIA (9:00 Eastern)
The T.O. saga is (almost) finally behind the Eagles. But, without him on the field, what chance do these guys really have? They will be better off without him over the long haul but his absence hurts their chances tonight against the Cowboys. They are 0-3 without him in the lineup since he came aboard. I don' think they should be laying 3 points to a better team. Even with Owens in the lineup, this team has looked like a shell of themselves. McNabb has been hurt and off in his passing and Mike Martz seems to have come back re-incarnated as Andy Reid. Passing over 65% of the time? That's a recipe for disaster. And, Reid has been as hard-headed about it as Martz - refusing to go back to the run, even when everyone is telling him he should. Heavy passing teams rarely do well in the NFL. Period. Those that committ to the run, do very well. Dallas committs. Dallas has run the ball 251 times this season to Philadelphia's 155. That's a 62% difference and one of the main reasons to back the Boys tonight. Dallas has faced stiffer competition than the Eagles and come out on top. The Cowboys have beaten the Giants, Chargers and crushed this Philadelphia squad a few weeks ago. They barely lost to Seattle and Washington. Philadelphia, meanwhile, have looked pretty bad the past few weeks. After losing 33-10 to Dallas, they squeaked by San Diego on a blocked fieldgoal-return-for-TD. They then got hammered by Denver and lost to Washington. Dallas is the better team. Even if Reid sees the light and tries to run tonight, he may not get much of a chance. Dallas has held it's last four opponents to an average of 63 yards rushing. And two of those opponents (Giants & Seattle) were very good rushing teams - unlike Philly. The Cowboys have the fifth ranked defense and sixth ranked offense in the league. Philly has the worst rushing game and 26th ranked defense. Sure, Philly will be fired up to show what they can do post-TO. But, the Cowboys know that and Parcells is one of the best in-division coaches in NFL history. The wrong team is favored here. Three stars on the underdog plus the field goal.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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The
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