Has NFL Underdog "Value" Disappeared?
What's happening this year in the NFL? This has been one of the strangest seasons I can remember, betting wise. In a sport where the public usually loses big, they are winning. Why? The public loves favorites and the favorites are coming through. Last week the underdogs covered all of 4 games and only one undedog won outright! Home underdogs, usually a safe haven, were an atrocious 2-7 against the spread. On the season, favorites have a healthy edge (69-57). It has made for some difficult handicapping this season for underdog bettors, especially the last couple of weeks.

Simply fading big favorites isn't working as well this year as it has in the past. On the contrary, there is value to be found this season, even on big favorites. In some cases, the big lines this season are well deserved as there is a bigger than normal discrepancy between the haves and the have-nots. We've had some success selectively backing big favorites (Washington in week 7, Carolina and Dallas in week 8 and the Giants last week). But a couple have bitten us the last couple of weeks (Jacksonville last week and Pittsburgh the week before).

The trick, of course, as we enter week 10, is to find the favorites that are worth backing and finding the undervalued underdogs. The latter are harder to uncover this season but they still lurk. And, I believe that over time, the parity will increase to more "normal" levels and the underdogs will again return as the best value in the NFL. When this happens, the public is going to lose a lot of money on the favorites that have built their bankroll. So, watch out. The correction is coming sometime to a Sunday near you!

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	3-10 last 13 picks	23%	($1600)
NFL	7-5 last 12 picks	58%	+$250
WNBA	N/A	0%	($0)
TOTAL			$-1350

My Week 10 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck!

*Kansas City +2.5 over BUFFALO (1:00 Eastern)

This Chiefs team is feeling good about themselves after their last-second gutsy win over the Oakland Raiders last week. Priest Holmes is out, but no matter. Larry Johnson has proved a more than capable replacement. After a slow start, Kansas City has found their offense again. Over their past five games, they are averaging 27.2 points per game. I expect Larry Johnson to step up in this game. He wants to show, in his first game as the true starter, that he deserves that role. He's averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season and is ready to shoulder the load. While Buffalo's pass defense is the best in the league, they are just middle-of-the-road against the run. Kansas City, with the veteren Trent Green, will find a way to score here. After a promising start replacing JP Losman, Buffalo's Kelly Holcomb has cooled. He's 2-2 since replaceing the rookie and has done little to instill confidence in the past two games, both losses. Kansas City is the better team and this game should be about a pick 'em. The points make this a high percentage play. Kansas City for one star.

***NY GIANTS -9.5 over Minnesota (1:00 Eastern)

I know. Nine and half is a lot of points. But, in this game, not enough. We were on Minnesota last week as they were in a good situation. The team rallyed after the loss of Duante Culpepper. And, they were playing the Lions. Now they are off a win and the extra level of emotional support Brad Johnson got last week will be largely gone. And, they are facing the Giants. New York right now is playing Super Bowl ball. Might we see an Eli vs. Peyton matchup in the big game? We might! Manning is getting better and better each week. He's got a great WR (Plaxico Burress) and a great TE (Jeremey Shockey) to throw to. Throw in the able Amani Toomer and Tiki Barber out of the backfield and you have a potent passing game. Then, mix in Barber and the emerging Brandon Jacobs and you round out the most prolific scoring offense in the NFL. Against the league's 27th defense, they will score in droves, getting above their average of 29 per game. New York has great coaching too. If they were ever to suffer a letdown, last week would have been it. They were off a 38-0 trouncing and were going to face the lowly 49ers. Tom Coughlin simply wouldn't let them falter. His coaching, and their sheer superiority, led them to a win and a cover as a big road favorite. Home favorites that have allowed 200 or less yards in 2 straight games hit at about 80% in the NFL. Minnesota has a big Monday night game against Green Bay on deck and are in a tough situation here. In the Meadowlands, the G-Men romp in this one. New York for 3 stars.

*Washington -1 over TAMPA BAY (4:15 Eastern)

The Skins have beaten Chicago, Dallas, Seattle and Philadelphia. As stated in these pages multiple times this season, this team is damn good. Tampa Bay used to be good. When Cadillac Williams was tearing it up and Brian Griese was under center, they could play with anyone. But, with Crissy at the helm and Williams not at 100%, it's turned out to be another story. They were in a good position last week and fell absolutely flat. They've rushed for less than 100 yards total in the past two weeks! Even wtih a great defense, that's not going to cut it. This team needs to do two things to get back to winning and neither is likey to happen this week. First, they need to start Tim Rattay but Gruden said he's sticking with Simms. Second, they need to get a running game going. A great defense with a great running game is a recipe for success and it's what they had early on. But, with a mistake-prone passing game and a less than 100% Williams, they haven't gotten the run going. This week they face the league's 7th best defense so don't expect Tampa to break out this game. One star on the Redskins.

***SEATTLE -6.5 over St. Louis (4:15 Eastern)

Ahhh, I wait for these opportunities. Backing a good team at home against the Rams. St. Louis simply does not perform well on the road. They are 1-3 SU and ATS away from the friendly confines of their dome. The only team they beat was the lowly Arizona Cardinals. Against good teams the caliber of their opponent this week, Seattle, they have gotten crushed. Versus Indianapolis and the Giants earlier this season on the road, they gave up 44 and 45 points respectively. Heck, they gave up 28 points to San Francisco on the road! Against Shaun Alexander and the potent Seahawks, how do you think they are going to fare? Seattle is scoring 26 points per game and at home they have put forth a 37 point performance against Arizona and a 42 point game against Houston. And, the Hawks want this one! St. Louis managed to take all 3 games last season including the Wild Card game in Seattle that knocked the Seahawks out of the playoffs. Yes, Seattle beat St. Louis already this season but they know that if they are to prove to themselves and everyone else that they are a Super Bowl contender, they need to win this divisional home game. Back to the Rams' road troubles. They are 1-8 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the league's top offense (Seattle) against its 30th ranked defense (St. Louis). Three stars on the Seahawks.