darrell,

What goes up must come down. Despite hitting our first NFL five-star play of the year on Buffalo, we suffered only our second losing week in the last eleven. I expect to bounce back with a vengeance this week.

This week we are going to take advantage of some "false" wins and losses that occured last week as we go big-time contrarian on most of this week's picks...

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	N/A	0%	($0)
MLB	14-11 last 25 picks	56%	+$1160
NFL	9-7 last 16 picks	56%	+$660
WNBA	24-8 last 32 picks	75%	+$3130
TOTAL			+$4950

My Week 9 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

*MINNESOTA +1 over Detroit (1:00 Eastern)

Culpepper is out. Good. Can't get any worse. He's playing as bad as we was a couple of years ago and that's pretty bad. In 2005, he'll be remembered for throwing 6 TDs and 12 interceptions and leading his team to a 2-5 record. Brad Johnson won't be a major drop-off and I expect the rest of his teammates to step it up in Daunte's absence. Minnesota has won 10 of the last 11 in this matchup and seven straight in Minneapolis and today we find them getting a point to boot. They are underdogs because the public now sees them as completely down and out. Heck, it really couldn't get any worse for them with all of the controversy and horrible play. Now their most visible and likable player goes down - a 3 time pro bowler. Folks, as soon as it looks like it can't get any worse is the time to back the bad team. We saw a couple of teams that looked like they had no shot last week, San Francisco and Baltimore, show that there is still enough parity in this league for the terrible teams to take one now and again. Detroit goes back to Joey Harrington at QB. Not because they want to but because they are forced to thanks to an injury to Jeff Garcia. How rocky does Harrington's confidence have to be right now? I expect a somewhat inspired performance by the Vikings defense who feels they need to step up in Culpepper's absence and because they are a home underdog to a team they have dominated. I won't go into stats here as this is a pure emotional / situational pick. One star on the Vikings.

***TAMPA BAY +1.5 over Carolina (1:00 Eastern)

Contrarian pick here that sets up very nicely. These two teams are almost EXACTLY mirror images of themselves. The Panthers have seemed like world-beaters lately. Superstar receiver Steve Smith has been grabbing headlines left and right and Carolina has been winning in convincing fashion. Many pegged them as a Super Bowl team preseason and now that they are winning again, lots of people's initial intuition was right (at least in their minds). After a 1-2 start, they have won 4 straight, the last one a 38-13 drubbing of Minnesota. So, lots of action on the Panthers. Meanwhile, Tampa's the exact opposite. They start 4-0 and have gone 1-2 in their last three. Their last game was the exact opposite of Carolina's. The Bucs lost outright as a 10.5 point favorite to the lowly San Francisco 49ers. That was an ugly, ugly loss folks. As such, we see Tampa Bay as a home underdog in this one. Love it! Sure, Chris Simms looked awful and the rest of the team seemed to sleepwalk through last week's game. They just weren't up for that game, facing the doormat of the league. They were looking forward to this key divisional game! As such, they were caught off guard. That's the kind of loss that pisses a team off. It evokes buried feelings of pride. Tampa Bay is going to come back with a vengeance in this one. They know they can't afford to drop 3 of 4, especially to the team tied for the division lead. They are going to leave it all on the field in this one. There was a glimmer of hope with Simms last week as went 21-34 for 264 yards. It was mistakes (three turnovers) that hurt him and his team. Not too unexpected in his first outing. I expect him, with another week under his belt and the first live game out of the way, to perform better this week. He'll be facing a Carolina defense ranked 26th in the league. Tampa Bay has the defense to keep Smith in check this week. Tampa has allowed just 230 yards per game - good for tops in the league. Underdogs in a divisional game coming off an upset loss hit at about 70% ATS. A wounded animal in desperate need of a win with a great defense. Tampa for three stars.

*****JACKSONVILLE -13 over Houston (1:00 Eastern)

Similar to the Carolina/Tampa Bay game, this matchup was set up perfectly based on last week's results. Houston notched their first win of the season, an upset, while Jacksonville lost as a favorite. While this is a lot of points, it still represents a lot of value based on last week's results. If Houston lost (which they easily could have) and Jacksonville won (which they easily could have), this line would be much higher. It should be around 17 points in my opinion. Wait a minute, you say. Jacksonville doesn't blow anyone out. They play close games! Yes, they have played close games. But, let's look at who they have played. They have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, if not the toughest. They have played Seattle, Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh - all Super Bowl contenders! To go 3-2 against those opponents says something about how good this team really is. They have the seventh ranked defense that knows how to pressure opposing quarterbacks (18 sacks already). David Carr is in trouble. Let's talk about the Texans. They won. Whoppteedoo! They still suck. They are last in offense and second-to-last in defense in the league. Even with last week's win factored in, they are losing games on average by a score of 28-13! Their win last week was in spite of themselves. It was more about Cleveland's ineptitude and a bit of special teams luck than a great day by the Texans. Truth be told, Houston was lucky to come away with a win. Consider that they racked up all of 237 total yards, 11 first downs and in four second-half trips to the redzone, got no touchdowns. Their special teams was the MVP. They have played a tough schedule for sure but it doesn't get any easier this week. And, the Jags will be pissed off about losing last week and on guard for a letdown based on Houston squeaking out a win last week. Five stars on the Jags to absolutely crush the Texans.

**MIAMI +2.5 over Atlanta (1:00 Eastern)

We've banked a lot on taking the Dolphins selectively this season, including last week. Here's another opportunity. The theme this week, as you know, is "false" wins and losses. Atlanta had a false win against the Jets on Monday night prior to their bye. The nation saw them win by a lopsided score of 27-14. But, what happened in that game? Vinny and the Jets coughed up the ball four times. Michael Vick was only 11 of 26 for 116 yards. It was a sloppy performance for Atlanta and yet they won "easily" if you judge by the final score. Teams that play sloppily but win anyway tend not to work as much as they should on what ails them. In the same way they did last year, Atlanta is finding ways to win games without that solid of a team - statistically. Yes, they can run the ball with the best of them. But, outside of that, they are just average. My power ratings peg Miami as the better team here and they are getting nearly a field goal at home. Atlanta has not impressed me in several games this year including a 3 point win over lowly New Orleans at home two weeks ago and a home loss to New England. Outside of last week's misleading final score, they have only blown out one opponent this year - the Minnesota Vikings (who hasn't?). Miami has some offense this year and their running game has gotten on-track the past couple of games as Ronnie Brown has exceeded 100 yards in both. Atlanta gets exposed here as they lose outright. Take Miami plus the 2.5 points for two stars.

*NY Giants -11 over SAN FRANCISCO (4:05 Eastern)

My one pick this week in which I am going with the seemingly "obvious" public choice. The G-Men won 36-0 last week fueled by the emotions surrounding the death of their beloved owner Wellington Mara. It was a huge win so how can I back them this week? Normally I don't like backing big favorites off big wins. Won't they come crashing back down to earth? I don't think so. The fact that San Francisco won changes everything. If San Fran lost last week, I would be very worried about a Giants letdown here. But, I don't think that'll happen now. San Francisco played giant killer last week as 10.5 point underdogs. You can bet Tom Coughlin has been reminding his troupes of that all week. And, New York is just SO superior here that San Francisco doesn't stand much of a chance. They'd have to put together another performance like last week and have New York lay down as Tampa Bay did. But, New York isn't starting Chris Simms. They could sleepwalk through this one and should still win by two touchdowns. San Francisco is allowing 32 points per game (dead last in the league) while New York is scoring 30 per game (first in the league). Despite their success this season and last game, the G-Men have motivation here. They are 0-2 on the road this year and have lost six straight to the Niners and 11 of their last 13 in San Francisco. They want this win. Road teams vs. an opponent coming off a win as a double-digit dog are nearly perfect ATS in recent history in the NFL. Things, in this game at least, return to normal this week as the vastly superior team crushes the weakling opponent. One star on the Giants minus the points.

*WASHINGTON -3 over Philadelphia (8:30 Eastern)

I'll always take a close hard look at teams that got embarrased the way Washington did last week. If it's not a horrible team, they are often worth a look. NFL players and staff have pride. Good teams that get embarrased tend to bounce back while the public fades them. Washington is a damn good team. Last week's loss I am chalking up to the "Wellington Mara factor." Outside of that game, Washington has been playing outstanding football. They have beaten some very good teams this year including Chicago, Dallas and Seattle. They barely lost to Denver on the road, nearly winning as a 7 point underdog and they outplayed Kansas City in every possible way in a loss that should have been a win. Then, they destroyed San Francisco 52-17. Again, outside of what I consider a fluky loss, Washington is playing playoff football. Philadelphia has fallen on hard times and looks like a mediocre team this year. They've been blown out in two of their last three games and in the third game, needed a blocked punt return for a touchdown to avoid losing. We get the better team at home, pissed off coming off an embarrasing loss, and we're only laying three. On the road this season, Philadelphia has been outscored in the first quarter 45-0. If they get behind in this one, Washington's defense is too good to let them back in it. The Skins' defense matches up perfectly here. Philly has called passing plays a ridiculous 78% of the time this year. Yes, over three fourths of their offensive plays have been pass plays. Washington has the league's #1 pass defense folks. You shut down Philadelphia's passing game and they are toast as they have the league's worst running game. The Eagles also own the 25th ranked defense. One star on the Skins minus the points.