NFL season subscribers have generated a profit that is 13 times higher than the average expected stock market return. I'll explain that below.

LAST WEEK: We followed up week six's 67% performance with a 78% outing in week seven as we went 7-2 on a star basis. Our first double-digit favorite pick in years cruised easily as Washington anihilated the defenseless Niners 52-17. We also hit our other 3-star pick, San Diego. We've won 9 of 11 weeks and are now 67% on the season.

Back to the 13x higher return than stocks. After 11 weeks, a $100 player has wagered $11,770 on the 107 "stars" worth of picks this NFL season (107 bets times $110 accounting for the juice). He's turned that investment into $15,010, after the vig. That's a net profit of $3,240 which equals a 27.5% return in just 11 weeks!

Stocks on average return 10% per year so over an 11 week period, that comes out to about 2% over any 11 week period. Hmmm... 27.5% vs. 2% - not bad!

My Week 8 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck!

A note about this week's picks... Again this week's selections include multiple favorites. By far I have picked the most favorites this year of any year handicapping the NFL. Why? Because they are covering. There's a much bigger disparity between good and bad teams. Last week favorites were 8-5-1. This week there are several that I like a lot as well. As long as we keep winning with them like we have been, I'll keep picking those that I think make sense. On to the picks...

**Washington +2.5 over NY GIANTS (1:00 Eastern)

You win 52-17 to push your record to 4-2 and you find yourselves as an underdog. Love it. The Skins are for real folks and they are getting (much) better every week. The G-Men are very good as well and power-wise these are pretty close teams. But, Washington has the big emotional and situational advantage. They are coming off a big-time confidence boosting game. They got the offensive monkey off their back as they finally broke out. That now makes four out of five weeks that they've scored more than their previous week. They now know and believe they can score. Combine that with their defensive prowess and they are a tough opponent for anyone right now. Things are going so good emotionally for this club that even the disgruntled Lavar Arrington is happy again after playing a significant role last week. Brunnel is killing it and Portis had his breakout game last week. They are riding high. The Giants are also off a big win but one of a very different kind. Eli Manning has been nothing short of amazing and given his play, at this point in his career, he looks to have even better prospects than his brother. But, these new cardiac kids can't continue to win close ones week after week. The kinds of games that they have played the last two weeks vs. Denver and Dallas takes its toll. And, while boosting confidence in some ways, it dampens it in others. "Why do we need to keep winning at the last second?" they must be asking themselves subconciously. New York, after coming out of the gates offensively (34 points per game over first four) have shown that they aren't so prolific against good defenses (18.5 per game last two). Did I mention that Washington has the league's 2nd ranked offense and 4th ranked defense while New York's defense is ranked second to last? Redskins for two stars.

**CINCINNATI -9 over Green Bay (1:00 Eastern)

Last week's outcomes were a great setup for this game. One of the top two teams in the league in my book (Cincinnati) got pummeled as a favorite while a really bad team (Green Bay) put up a relatively good showing for the third straight week. Green Bay didn't win but lots of people are giving them credit for the game in which Minnesota won on a last second field goal. But wait, the Pack lost to Minnesota. Minnesota is terrible this year and a win doesn't change that. Heck, maybe we should go against Minny this week (see below). The fact is that the talent difference in this game is huge. Brett Favre remains a tough guy with talent but his skills have obviously deteriorated. This isn't about Favre, though, as the bigger issue is what surrounds him. The Packers have lost two of their top three receivers and their starting running back. And any defense that squanders a 17-0 lead has its issues. Cincinnati's loss wasn't as bad as the final score would indicate. Carson Palmer through two picks within a few minutes in the third quarter which allowed Pitt to blow a close game wide open. In this one, I expect things to return to normal - that is - Cincinnati playing like a Super Bowl team and Green Bay playing like a 1-5 team. How do the desimated Packers get up for this one after that gut-wrenching loss last week? They are 1-5 and with their injuries, have about ZERO hope of winning this. And they know it. I suspect that Green Bay's spirit is crushed and they may lay down in this one, especially if Cincinnati jumps out to an early lead. This one could get very ugly. Two stars on the Bengals to bounce back in a huge way.

*CAROLINA -7.5 over Minnesota (1:00 Eastern)

Minnesota won last week. Whop-tee-do. Pardon my french but, they still suck. Don't let last week's last-second win over a terrible opponent fool you. All that win did was ensure that Carolina doesn't overlook the Vikings here on Sunday. Delhomme will be back for this one and with him in the lineup, this is a very solid ballclub. In their three road games this season, Minnesota has been beaten by an average score of 32-7. Of his 12 interceptions, Culpepper has through 9 of them in those games. The 25th ranked Vikings defense is just what the doctor ordered for Carolina. Steve Smith will eat them up and Stephen Davis should finally have a breakout game as the Panthers come into this one well rested off their bye. One star on the Panthers minus the points.

***DALLAS -9 over Arizona (1:00 Eastern)

Ouch. That Dallas loss last week hurt. It doesn't get much more boneheaded than that for Drew Bledsoe. The good news is that they played Seattle VERY tough on the road. Seattle is an excellent team, especially at home and holding them to 13 points there is something to be very proud of. Dallas has now held it's last three opponents under two touchdowns each and these teams are not offensive weaklings. Besides Seattle, they faced Philadelphia and the Giants. If it weren't for last week's gaffe, the late collapse against Washington, and a very close loss to Oakland, Dallas would be 7-0 right now. I know - what if. But, the point is that they are about a half-dozen plays away from an undefeated record. They are a very good team. Same can't be said about Arizona. They won last week but that's entirely due to three Tenessee turnovers. Against the three good teams they've played this year (NYG, SEA, CAR), the Cardinals have surrendered 34 points per game. Their only win outside of last week's was against San Francisco - the doormat of the league. Zona can't run the ball (71 yards per game) and that spells loads of trouble this week against Dallas' defense which is ranked 7th in the league. You can bet Parcells will have his team working overtime this week after that frustrating loss. Gotta love Parcells in division games anyway. Three stars on Dallas to cover as they dominate on both sides of the ball.

**Cleveland +2 over HOUSTON (1:00 Eastern)

Pinch me. The winless Texans are favorites. Trap? I don't think so. Some things in life are just wrong and this is one of them. Cleveland is bad but Houston is horrific. As a result, this game gets my award this week for the most outrageous line. Cleveland should be over a field goal favorite here. Yeah, I know that this is Houston's best shot at a victory this year and that they will be trying hard. But, no matter how hard I try, I am not going to beat Michael Jordan in a game of pickup. Trying only helps if you have the talent and skills to pull it off. If it weren't for San Francisco, this Houston team would be setting records for bad play this year. David Carr has already been sacked 35 times. Last week he hit the rug 5 times and coughed up the ball 3 times. My supercomputer simulation gives the Browns a 63% at winning here. It's obvious to the computer, to me and hopefully to you - the wrong team is favored here. Houston is ranked dead last in the league in passing, total offense and rushing defense. They are losing by an average margin of 17.5 points per game. They've been outgained by 861 yards this season and have 56 fewer first downs than their opposition. And they are favored? You gotta be kidding me! Cleveland for two stars.

**Jacksonville -3 over ST. LOUIS (1:00 Eastern)

Said it all season - St. Louis isn't very good. As a result, this overrated club is 2-5 ATS so far this year. They beat New Orleans last week thanks in part to the worst call by the Zebras in recent memory (you've all seen it a dozen times on ESPN by now). New Orleans for goodness sake! The final score in that game was misleading as the Rams were losing for much of it. Prior to last week, they got spanked by Indianapolis, Seattle and the Giants. All very good teams you say. Yes! But, Jacksonville is right there. My power ratings tell me that Jacksonville is a top-5 team - maybe top 3. They are almost as underrated as the San Diego Chargers. Jacksonville beat Cincinnati and Pittsburgh back-to-back before their bye last week! And, they beat a very good Seattle team in week 1 and held Indianapolis to 10 points in week two. Their only two losses came to Indy and Denver - two playoff teams. Their fifth ranked defense should have success this weekend against St. Louis whether Bulger or Martin gets the start and whether or not Torry Holt goes. Take the top caliber team against the overrated one for two stars.

**Miami +2 over NEW ORLEANS (4:05 Eastern)

Another stadium for the Saints but same expected outcome - bad play. Without Duece McCallister, their best player, the Saints are not a good team. And, the Katrina distractions are obviously continuing to wear on them. Miami is coming off a pretty bad beating and I expect them to have prepared well, with the extra two days, for this game. After a surprising 2-1 start in which they beat Denver and Carolina, the Dolphins have dropped three straight. But, those three losses came against good teams - Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Kansas City. It's time for the Dolphins to turn things around. I like backing teams with good coaches after three straight SU and ATS losses with the last one being the worst and that's what we have here. The three losses, capped by the KC beating last week is why Miami is an underdog. You can bet Miami players and coaches have heard about it from the media, fans and their spouses and girlfriends all week long and they will be doing anything to go through that again this week. Meanwhile, Jim Haslett seems more interested in whining than winning. Miami isn't as bad as most people think. They should be favored here and as a result, we'll take 'em plus the points for two stars.

****Tampa Bay -10.5 over San Francisco (4:15 Eastern)

Last week we faded San Francisco, backing Washington as a 12.5 point favorite. For an underdog guy, I had to think long and hard about that pick. But, everything pointed to a Washington blowout and it ultimately turned out to be the right call as San Francisco lost by 35 points. Ladies and Gentleman, San Francisco is just awful. If you thought they were bad last year, you ain't seen nothing yet. They are on pace to set a new "low" record in my power ratings for any NFL team - ever. Their offensive line is about as good as my local high school team's and that's a recipe for absolute disaster in the NFL. Ken Dorsey (third stringer a few weeks ago) gets the call today for San Fran but it doesn't matter. Alex Smith or Dorsey - same outcome. Against the league's top defense, they are in loads of trouble here. Tampa has allowed 171 yards per game through the air this season. As good as their pass defense is, their run defense is even better, allowing 62 yards per game. San Francisco's 31st ranked offense doesn't stand a chance. If they are lucky they eek out a few field goals in this game. Tampa Bay isn't as good as Washington but they are still a top 10 team and they are going to walk all over the Niners. Tampa Bay must start Chris Simms in this one but no worries. He's had two weeks to prepare and he gets just what he needs - the 49er defense which is ranked, um, dead last in the league. I hope they arm Mike Nolan with a white flag in this one so he can surrender when this thing gets out of control in the first half. Take the Bucs minus the points for four stars.

*****Buffalo +9 over NEW ENGLAND (8:30 Eastern)

My sole losing pick on Sunday last week was Buffalo. Felt good about it going in as I felt Buffalo was better than Oakland going into the game. Coming out of it, I must admit I was wrong on that one - flat out. Oakland was better than I gave them credit for and Buffalo a bit worse. It didn't help that Randy Moss played a big factor after being listed as doubtful but regardless - had that one pegged wrong. What about this week? Buffalo finds themselves getting 9 points against the Champs. At the start of the season, if you told me New England would be laying nine here, I would have shrugged my shoulders and said "about right." But, lots has transpired since the beginning of the season. New England is a shell of their former self. There's no other way to look at it. One of the top teams the past few years, the Pats are simply average this year. Bellichick's genius and Brady's skills have allowed them to get to .500 but make no mistake - they are not a very good team right now. In fact, even after last week's big loss to Oakland, I view Buffalo as only marginally worse than New England. So, getting 9 here is a real gift. Tedy Bruschi may return in this game and that certainly will help a desperate Patriots defense which is ranked 26th in the league. But, again, 9 is too many points. Especially considering that New England's running game has tanked along with their defense. They are gaining just 82 yards per game on the ground and are ranked in the bottom 5 in the league in that category. No defense and no running game and laying 9 points to a divisional foe is a recipe for giving your money away. Even if Bruschi returns, the Pats are still without their two starting cornerbacks Tyrone Poole and Randall Gay as well as backup Duane Starks, DL Richard Seymour and Safety Rodney Harrison. The loss of Harrison, in particular, has crippled a once dominant defense. This game sets up nicely as the public still thinks New England is strong and likes that they are coming off a bye. They also remember last week's 17-38 Buffalo loss. But, t eams off a very big loss now facing a team that gave up 25+ points two games in a row cover the spread about 7 out of 10 times in the NFL. Last week's big loser works hard and gets to go against a bad defense. This one stays closer than 9 as Buffalo isn't as bad as last week indicates and New England just doesn't have the defense to be laying this much. Five stars on the Bills plus the points.