Last week we were 10-5 (67%) on a star basis, chalking up our 8th winning week out of 10 this NFL season. Players at $100 pocketed $450 in profit. This week I see quite a few lines that I feel are off by a field goal plus.

My Week 7 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck!

***San Diego +3.5 over PHILADELPHIA (1:00 Eastern)

You heard it here in this newsletter last week. San Diego is for real! They are only 3-3 but as discussed last week, they are the best team with that record in the league. If you look below the surface, it's obvious. I believe they are one of the league's top 3 teams right behind Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Here, they get over a field goal against the has-been Eagles. That's a bit tongue-in-cheek. The Eagles aren't that bad. But, this line is off - more so than any other line this week. San Diego should be a pick'em or a favorite here and I think they have an excellent shot at winning this game outright. San Diego has proved they were not a fluke last year. They have the best player in the league bar-none in LaDanian Tomlinson. This guy is close to Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith good. He has moves and power and speed and versatility. No one, other than Pittsburgh, has been able to slow him down this season. Philly's defense certainly will not. Drew Brees and Antonio Gates round out an offense that is confident and can flat out score points. The Cowboys racked up 167 yards on the ground against the Eagles. LT could do better. Philly is coming off a devastating loss to the Cowboys. It was so lopsided that I believe their psyche is wounded. They were dominated physically in that game and the loss signaled an end to their NFC East dominance. They have no running game and McNabb just isn't in the groove he was last year - maybe due to the injury. Yes, I know that the Eagles are 6-0 after a bye in the Reid era and 17-3 following a loss this decade. But, things - they are a changin'. This is not the same Eagles team and it cerainly isn't the same Chargers team. Wrong team favored. Take the Chargers plus the points for three stars and if you're feeling as good about this as I am, consider a money-line play on San Diego at +160!

***WASHINGTON -12.5 over San Francisco (1:00 Eastern)

The Wunderdog laying 12.5 points? Has he gone mad? Maybe, but maybe not. I have been playing more favorites this year than normal but so far they have been very small ones at -3 or less. Come to think of it, we haven't played a -12.5 favorite in years. But, this year the discrepancies between the elite and the terrible are huge and the big spreads are getting covered more often than in years past. I think Washington is going to manhandle the Niners here. San Francisco is just that bad. My power ratings put them dead last in the league at this point - lower than Houston! And, cross-country, on the road, they are in trouble on Sunday. The Niners are scoring 8.5 per game on the road while giving up 36.5. Against Washington's defense, the San Francisco offense is going to be doing a lot of... well... punting. Alex Smith is in for a verrrrrrrry long day. If he was able to muster 3 against Indianapolis in his debut, he might not get any today against the fifth ranked defense in the league. On the flipside, the Redskins offense is starting to click. After a slow start with Patrick Ramsey, they are averging 20 points per game over their last three with Brunnel at the helm. Last week they dominated KC in every way shape and form but came away with the loss due soley to a -3 turnover differential. They put up nearly 400 yards and 26 first downs against the Chiefs! They own the sixth ranked offense in the league at this point. Against San Francisco's LAST place defense, the Redskins look to put up quite a few points on Sunday. I believe this spread to be off by about 4 points due to the deceptiveness of Washington's loss last week. They should have won that game and if they did, they'd be 4-1 right now and this line would be over two touchdowns. The Skins haven't forced a turnover in 4 games. Those things tend to even out over the long haul and if that stat evens out for this team, watch out. The fact that they are -8 on turnover differential and still own a winning record says a lot. San Francisco benched Rattay who had beat out Smith for the starting QB in the preseason. The reason Rattay struggled was not his fault - it was this horrible San Francisco offensive line. It will only be worse with Smith behind center as demonstrated in their 28-3 loss in Smith's first game. Ladies and gentleman, this is a mismatch of monster proportions and I don't see a Washington "letdown" likely, given the fact that they feel hungry for a win after two close losses. They are due for a blowout performance (they haven't won by more than 3 points this year). Washington breaks out for 25+ points in this one and San Francisco struggles to reach 10. Lay the big number and do it for three stars.

*Buffalo +3 over OAKLAND (4:15 Eastern)

Oakland may be without the services of Randy Moss here. If Moss plays, this spread is only a bit off. If he doesn't, Buffalo should be favored by a field goal. Buffalo handled the Jets last week as predicted here. It was an easy win for them. With Kelly Holcomb at the helm to compliment the emerging Willis McGahee, this Buffalo team is damn good! At the beginning of the season, I predicted they'd go OVER the 8 WIN TOTAL placed on them and they are already half-way there. With this lineup, they should sail past that number. They are ranked 6th in the league in rushing and Holcomb is reviving the passing game. They own the #9 overall defense and are ranked #1 in defending the pass. A great matchup for their defense here as their strength can combat Oakland's strength. They'll face a bad Oakland team that continues to be way overrated. So they have Randy Moss - so what? Their defense is atrocious (ranked 28th in the league) and their running game is horrible (ranked 31st). Why is this 1-4 team laying points? My supercomputer simulation in this one agrees with my power ratings and gut feel - that Buffalo is going to win. Buffalo is repeating what they did last year when they started slow but finished strong. They are now 12-3 ATS this season and last after the first month of the season. Meanwhile, Oakland is 1-9 ATS in weeks 5-9 over the past three seasons. Take the Bills plus the points for one star.

*CHICAGO -1 over Baltimore (4:15 Eastern)

While I picked the Bears last week, I must admit I had no idea they'd win by 25 points! It was the only game that we could really sit back and not stress about at all last weekend. We'll continue to ride them here as Kyle Orton continues to get snaps and continues to improve. In this game, the teams won't be able to help but think they are looking in the mirror. Both teas have great defenses (Chicago ranked 3rd and Baltimore 2nd) and struggling offenses, especially in the passing game. But, Chicago's offense has more potential. They've scored more points than Baltimore and they did put up 28 last week (bolstering Orton's confidence). Baltimore has managed just 12.6 points per game so far - ouch. Road teams with a good passing defense (allowing 175 or less passing yards/game) off 3 straight games in which they allowed under 5.5 passing yards/attempt are just 5-24 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Also, small favorites vs. a team that just won their first game of the season after multiple losses are 2-0 this year and 13-1 prior to that! Baltimore remains a bit overrated if that's possible and the Bears are the better team here. One star on Chicago.