darrell,

Another winning week last week in NFL as we went 60% on a star basis for +$160. We're off to our best start ever as we are now 65% on the season (55-29 on a star basis). $100 players have made $2,310 in profit through week 5.

My Week 6 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

StatShark - Analysis on Every Game

I would like to introduce you to StatShark, a Wunderdog partner and a great resource for NFL enthusiasts and bettors. 

StatShark provides predictions and analysis for every game. So, if I don't pick a particular game, you can still get insight on it. For that reason, it is great for office pools and for gamblers who have a hunch on a game and want more input. You can use StatShark to make your own picks and evaluate every wagering line to see the probabilities of winning each bet. 

So far, for the season Statshark is hitting 57% against the spread for every game. Considering that all games are picked each week, that's a really great number. In week 5, they went 15-10 or 60% using the median values only available in the Pro Version and 10-3 (77%) when the StatShark prediction percentage was 55% or higher against-the-spread (available in pro version).

***NY Giants +3.5 over DALLAS (1:00 Eastern)

Dallas is coming off a dismantling of the mighty Philadelphia Eagles. They are a solid team, for sure. But, my oh my - our memories are short. The decisive win over the Eagles seems to have made folks forget that the three prior weeks, the 'Boys lost to Oakland, almost (should have) lost to San Francisco, and lost to the Redskins. The last two weeks, they have played Parcells ball, not turning it over at all. This has helped them perform well. But, on Sunday, the Cowboys are going to get a stiff test from the G-Men and the top offense in the league. New York is putting up 34 points per game and haven't scored fewer than 23 this season. Eli is looking like Peyton, Shockey is back in his rookie form and Tiki Barber and Plaxico Burress round out a frightening attack. New York has really have had just one bad game - against the Chargers. But, that was a tough spot for them as San Diego was a cornered animal fighting for a must-have win at home under the Sunday night national spotlight. And, we have subsequently learned how good the Chargers really are. Outside of that one game, the Giants have won by an average score of 38 to 18! It's no wonder that my supercomputer simulation in this one predicts an outright New York win. The computer utilizes primarily statistics which is a key handicapping component. But, what about situation/motivation? New York is coming in well rested while Dallas is off an emotional game and will likely be without the services of Julius Jones. I've got a 20-0 trend that applies in this one. It involves underdogs playing against a team off a big dominating win. This year it has surfaced 2 times and is perfect. In week 3, Tampa was coming off a 19-3 win over Buffalo and won by just one point against Green Bay as a 3.5 point favorite. Also in week 3, Philadelphia came off a 42-3 shellacking of San Francisco. They were 8.5 point favorites against Oakland but only won by 3 points. I expect a similar letdown here for Dallas. We get over a field goal on the better team in a good situation. Take the Giants plus the points here for three stars.

*Carolina +1 over DETROIT (1:00 Eastern)

This game has moved from pick to Detroit minus one. Wrong direction. After a rough start, Carolina is back above .500 and grooving on offense. Steve Smith's absence last year was a major reason for their early season troubles. This year Smith is back with a vengeance. He leads the league in touchdowns by a wide receiver with six and has been the difference in more than one game this season. The Panthers showed heart last week, coming back from a 10-20 defecit to win the game. They've needed the offense as their defense has underperformed thus far. Detroit hasn't shown me much yet. They've lost to the two good teams they played (Chicago and Tampa) and beat two bad teams (Green Bay and Baltimore). In those two wins, they were helped mightily by the 7 turnovers they forced. My power ratings peg Carolina as the much better team here and I believe Detroit to be overrated. Carolina is 8-1 as an underdog this year and last year and 11-2 as a road dog over the past three seasons. Underdogs vs. teams that are forcing lots of turnovers hit at about 68% against the spread as things return to normal. And, I have a very strong situational trend that applies here involving teams like the Lions that are off a game in which they were outplayed statistically but had a turnover advantage that let them win the game. Bottom line here... Detroit looks better than they really are due to turnovers. Those things don't last forever. Take the dog here for one star.

**CHICAGO -3 over Minnesota (1:00 Eastern)

Chicago was closer than the final score would imply last week against Cleveland. The Browns played extremely well, especially late in the game. The Bears are on the cusp of being a very solid team. What they need is a weak opponent against which to build some confidence. But, Chicago isn't the story here - Minnesota is. This team is in shambles. They are playing horrible football and their off-the-field problems are not very public. The boat issue is distracting and Mike Tice's job is on the line. Tice said this week that "If I were to tell you this team is not distracted, I'd be lying to you." They've lost by an average score of 16 to 27 as Culpepper has already thrown nearly as many interceptions as he did all last year. Outside of their one win against the hapless Saints, Minny has lost by a combined score of 31-91. Their defense was bad last year but at least Culpepper was scoring. Their offense will struggle again here against one of the better defenses in the league (Chicago has the third ranked D in the NFL). And, this Minnesota defense is exactly what Kyle Orton needs to see. Great situation for Chicago here and bad one for Minnesota. Two stars on the Bears.

***Washington +6 over KANSAS CITY (1:00 Eastern)

Washington showed they can play cross-conference opponents in a hostile environment tough on the road last week. We backed them as they covered the 7 point number against Denver and I love them again here as a big road underdog. Mark Brunell is playing... well... very good. He's giving their offense a bit of a boost. And, combined with their top 5 defense, this team has a shot every week. Their four games have been decided by a TOTAL of 8 points. Yet, they get six here. Things aren't rosy in KC. After an opening day blowout win over the Jets that now looks less impressive than it did at the time, they beat Oakland (big deal) and lost to Denver by 20 and Philadelphia by 6. Their vaunted offense is nowhere near where it has been in years past. The rushing game is humming but Trent Green and Tony Gonzales have gone cold. Green hasn't thrown for 250 yards yet. The Chiefs defense is ranked 30th in the league. The Skins under Gibbs are strong as road dogs. They are 10-2 as a road dog of less than 7 since 2003. Washington was a 2-point conversion away from tying the game last week and possibly winning against a very good team on the road. They enter this game with confidence from their recent play and faith in their coach and quarterback. They keep this one close. Three stars on the Skins.

*Cleveland +6 over BALTIMORE (1:00 Eastern)

Cleveland's win over Chicago last week impressed me a lot. Chicago is not a bad team and their defense is great. Yet, Cleveland put up 20 points as Trent Dilfer completed some key passes down the stretch. Dilfer played QB for this week's opponent, Baltimore, during their Super Bowl winning season five years ago. The guy, a Super Bowl champ, remains underrated. At this point, I'm guessing Baltimore wishes they didn't let him go. Boller's been horrible and Anthony Wright has been as bad. The Ravens have scored just 47 points this season (that's only 3 more than the lowly Houston Texans). They seem to be coming apart at the seams as last week they had 21 penalties (nearly an NFL record) and coach Brian Billick inexplicably didn't bust heads. What's going on there? Their defense, historically one of the best in the league, gave up 169 rushing yards last week to the Detroit Lions. Jamal Lewis is near the bottom of the heap in rushing yards as it appears he forgot how to run during prison. If the Ravens' offense struggles early here again, frustration will set in quickly. Romeo Crennel appears to be having a positive influence on his team, as is Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. One star on the Browns as Baltimore has no business laying six points to anyone.

**BUFFALO -3 over NY Jets (4:15 Eastern)

The Jets pulled out a squeaker last week against the Bucs, who are starting to look more and more overrated the last three weeks. Vinny looked good, or good enough. But, this week they have a stiffer road test against a revived Buffalo team. The switch to veteren Kelly Holcomb has breathed new life into the Bills team and their fans. After pulling the long-overdue trigger on the rookie, Buffalo pulled off a nice win against Miami on 20 for 26 passing by Holcomb. He complimented Willis McGahee who carried 31 times for 86 yards and a touchdown. Already ranked sixth in the league, McGahee should see more success as Holcomb continues to do well. He'll be running against the 5th worst run defense in the league on Sunday. The Bills defense, on the other hand, is giving up just 15 points per game and they have the best pass defense in the league, surrendering just 139 yards through the air per game. Vinny's in for a long day here folks. The Jets were sloppy last week, committing 3 turnovers, yet they still won. They have to be feeling a bit of "Vinny's the answer" after that win but really their confidence is false. That kind of sloppiness will kill them here. Two stars on the Bills minus the points.

**San Diego -2 over OAKLAND (4:15 Eastern)

When will everyone catch on? The Chargers are a VERY good ballclub and Oakland is not. A 2-3 team very good? Yes! San Diego lost game one to Dallas - barely in a game in which the absence of Antonio Gates probably cost them the game. They lost another close one to a very good Denver team the next week. For a team that everyone was watching early in the season to determine if last year was a fluke, an 0-2 start was damaging. Lots of folks solidified an opinion that San Diego really was a fluke in 2004 and wasn't really that good. Big mistake. Since then, the Chargers crushed a very good Giants team and beat the World Champs by 24 points. They lost last Monday to Pittsburgh but Pitt is one of the few teams that are as good as the Chargers and they were in a great situation on Monday night while San Diego was due to be flat. That loss was expected in my mind, despite San Diego's strengths (why we backed Pitt in that one). Bottom line - San Diego is VERY good, especially since they have rediscovered LaDanian Tomlinson. This is the best 2-3 team you'll find and by season's end, they will be in the playoffs. Last week, LT couldn't break free from a Pittsburgh team that is absolutely lights-out against the run and had two weeks to prepare for the best best back in the league. But this is Oakland - owners of the 3rd worst defense in the NFL. Drew Brees, LT and Antonio Gates are going to absolutely feast here. Last year in two games between these clubs, the Chargers rushed for 175 and 176 yards respectively and Drew Brees completed 81% of his passes as the Chargers won by a collective score of 65-31! Brees has won his last three starts against the Silver and Black, throwing 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. Over the past two seasons, San Diego is 8-1 ATS on the road and 9-0 vs. teams with losing records. Meanwhile, Oakland is 0-7 at home in division games over the last three seasons. Take the much better team in a great matchup for them here. San Diego should be laying over a field goal. They win easy. Chargers for two stars.