NFL Foobtall
Premium Edition
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2005
Week 5 Monday
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darrell,
3-2 yesterday and 4-4 on a star-basis. Overall we sit at 53-29 (65%) on the season on a star basis as $100 players have made $2,110 in profit.
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My Week
5 NFL Computer Simulations are
available for viewing. These simulations are based
on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands
of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping
- not a replacement. The computer can't take into
account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.
WUNDERDOG
2005 RESULTS |
SPORT |
STAR
RECORD |
$100/BET |
|
53-29 |
65% |
+$2,110 |
|
57% |
+$2,812 |
|
41-32 |
56% |
+$650 |
|
5-0 |
100% |
+$525 |
|
322-288 |
53% |
+$490 |
TOTAL |
|
|
+$6,587 |
Good
luck, darrell!

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**Pittsburgh
+3 over SAN DIEGO (9:00 Eastern)
No one hotter than the San Diego Chargers right now. After a rough start, they've delivered two straight blowouts. Last week they beat the Super Bowl champs 41-17. Pittsburgh is off a home loss to that same New England team. Shouldn't the Chargers be favored by more here? This line is being pushed hard towards -3.5 right now as those taking San Diego -3 are being forced to lay -120 to -125 at most books. This line may move to +3.5 later in the day. Is that the right diretion? Actually, no. I like the dog here quite a bit. LaDanian Tomlinson is absolutely tearing it up. The public knows it. Heck, they saw it in last week's marquee matchup. Drew Brees has proven he was not a one-hit wonder last season. Right now San Diego looks unbeatable, having put up 40+ points two weeks in a row against two good teams. This is a perfect time, ladies and germs, to fade them. Think the Pittsburgh defense is going to be fired up for this one? What a challenge! Just the kind of challenge that a defense like the Steelers relish. The Steelers are giving up 12.3 points per game, by the way. Pitt is grumpy and motivated, coming off a close loss to their nemisis - the Patriots at Hines field. That was a bitter loss in a game they could have won. They are off a bye and have prepared hard for this one. This is a team, under Ben Roethlisberger, that doesn't lose two in a row. Unlike the Patriots, Pitt has the running game to match the output of LT. Willie Parker has been lights out, Staley will get more carries tonight and Jerome Bettis may return for this one as well. That running game is what has allowed Roethlisberger, a QB who knows his role, to shine. He is the highest rated passer in the entire league. My computer simulation predicts a very tight game. I don't always agree with the computer but in this case I do. This line is inflated due to San Diego's recent success and the recent results against a common opponent - New England. But, San Diego's win against New England was more of a stituational than power-thing. The reason we backed San Diego in that one was that the Pats had just come off a very draining close game against the Steelers! This line should be closer to a pick 'em. We'll take the three point gift in a game that can go either way. If you can get this at 3.5, it's a very high percentage play.
|
|
| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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The
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