3-2 last week and 6-5 on a star basis for a small $50 profit. Overall we sit at 49-25 (66%) on the season on a star basis.

Good luck!

**Chicago +3 over CLEVELAND (1:00 Eastern)

Are the Cleveland Browns really posted as a favorite? Pinch me. Yes, the Bears offense has issues. Kyle Orton has looked like, well, a rookie. But, he's now entering his fifth game and should be starting to shake off some of the rookie jitters right about now. He has thrown 6 interceptions to just one touchdown but five of those game in just one game. The Cleveland offense has their own issues. As bad a rap as Chicago's offense gets, Cleveland has scored fewer points (15 per game to Chicago's 17.3). The problem lies primarily in their running game - or lack thereof. They have rushed for just 75 yards per game. Against Chicago, a team with the league's 4th best defense that is allowing 13 points per game, the yards will be tough to come by. Rushing for so few yards and laying points is not a good combination in the NFL. Chicago could finally get a bit of success offensively here against Cleveland's 30th ranked defense. Two stars on the Bears.

**New Orleans +3 over GREEN BAY (1:00 Eastern)

We took the Pack on Monday night when it seemed crazy to back them. They covered and now we think it's time to go against them. The primary reason we took them on Monday was situational. They needed a win and they played like it. Even when they were down 19 points on the road, they didn't give up. They scratched, clawed and fought their way back to a near win. But, they lost. They are now 0-4 and there's no question their season is over. Even the eternally optimistic Brett Favre has to know that. They left a lot on the field on Monday night. They are drained now and are coming off a short week and a big game. "It's hard to express in words how disappointed I am. I left it all on the field," said Favre this week. In that game, several packers players were hurt seriously including RB Ahman Green, C Mike Flanagan, T Chad Clifton and WR Terrance Murphy. Flanagan and Murphy are out this week and the others are questionable. And, let us not forget the loss of Javon Walker earlier this season. This team is dessimated physically and emotionally. In fact, Green Bay here reminds me a lot of the situation New England found themselves in last week. As the Katrina hullabaloo settles down, the Saints can now focus on football. They have confidence after finally getting Duece McCallister untracked last week and getting a much needed win. These defenses are about equal but the Saints have the offensive advantage and a big emotional and situational one. Two stars on the Saints.

**Seattle +3 over ST. LOUIS (1:00 Eastern)

St. Louis is 1-3 yet for some reason people still don't get it. They are favorites despite the obvious fact that they are not very good. They've played one good team this season in the New York Giants. How do you lose to San Francisco and Arizona and barely beat Tennessee and remain a favorite here? Mike Martz is having health issues and has been missing practice. That can't be good. What a struggling team needs is strength and stability at the top. Not a coach who is in-and-out. He wasn't even able to watch game film with his players this week. St. Louis, as always, has a good offense (at least a good passing offense). But their defense is again bad. They are ranked 25th in the league in yards given up and they have allowed 27+ points in three of the four games so far! Seattle should take advantage of that given their offensive success so far (2nd in the league in offense). The Hawks are 2-2 but would be 3-1 if their game winning field goal last week didn't hit the upright. They went on to lose to Washington but they are better than a .500 club. Visiting underdogs fare very well ATS vs. opponents who have allowed 25+ points two weeks in a row. Take the better team plus the points for two stars.

*Tennessee +3 over HOUSTON (1:00 Eastern)

Again, another curious line to me. In many of the games this weekend it's as if the oddsmakers said "Well, they're about even - let's give the home team three points." On the surface, these are similar teams - both weak. But, really, Tennessee is better. Houston's offense is absymal. They have scored a total of 24 points in three games. They've given up 65. 'Nuff said. Well, let me keep going. They are averaging 87 passing yards a game and they have the absolute worst offense in the league. Tennessee's defense is worse but they have a semblence of an offense to go with it. The Titans have managed 69 points despite going against three of the best defenses in the leauge in Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indianapolis. We'll back the Titans here for one star.

*Washington +7 over DENVER (4:15 Eastern)

After a horrible start in Miami, the Broncos are playing playoff-quality ball thanks to solid defense. They squeaked past San Diego, blew out Kansas City and cruised by Jacksonville last week. Time for a letdown. Shanahan-coached Broncos teams are 11-22 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. They return home sky-high in confidence and despite New England's troubles, Denver is eyeing their matchup with the World Champs next week. Washington's offense doesn't strike fear into the hearts of NFL defenders so they could easily let up a bit here. The Skins have managed just over 14 points per game. But, they are steadily improving (9 in week one, 14 in week two and 20 last week). Denver has been the beneficiary of turnovers the past two weeks. They are +5 over those two weeks and if(when) that evens out a bit, they won't be winning so easily. Clinton Portis is making his first return to Denver since being traded to the Skins and you can bet he'll be running with a little extra umph. He will struggle against this Denver defense but seven points is a lot in this one. Especially considering that Washington's defense is as good as Denver's. They haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in eight straight games and their run defense is ranked fifth in the league. If they can force the game on to Jake Plummer's shoulders, the Broncos could be in trouble. He's piloting the league's 7th worst passing offense and his mistakes are legendary. We'll back the Redskins with the points for one star.

*Cincinnati +3 over JACKSONVILLE (4:15 Eastern)

The Bengals staved off the letdown last week to improve to a perfect 4-0. They overcame 14 penalties in that game. They'll need to cut down those mistakes but right now this team is clicking and we're glad to catch them as a dog. Jacksonville's offensive line is giving up sacks in bunches and Cincy's coming off a 7 sack performance agains the Texans. It will be interesting to see how the high-flying Cincinnati passing offense fares against the league's 2nd best pass defense. One thing is for sure - Carson Palmer is feeling it. He's thrown for over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns already through 1/3 of the season. Last year's benching of John Kitna to get Palmer ready now seems like a brilliant move by Marvin Lewis. Underdogs who have rushed for under 100 yards in two straight games facing an opponent that gave up 175+ rushing yards last game cover the spread 73% of the time. Check out my computer simulation in this one. One star on the still surging and undefeated Cincinnati Bengals.