2-2 on Sunday (4-5 on a star basis) as we lost two squeakers. We got the easy wins with San Diego and Philly. Seattle's game-winning field goal at the end of the fourth quarter hit the upright and they went on to lose in OT. Dallas had 2nd and goal from the Oakland 2 yard line but couldn't get the TD in three tries as the Cowboys fell. Overall we sit at 47-25 (65%) on the season on a star basis.

My Week 4 and 5 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck!

**Green Bay +7.5 over CAROLINA (9:00 Eastern)

Have we not all learned? Last week everyone thought Tampa Bay would crush the Packers. They did not. This week, the public was all over some large favorites of over a touchdown who all barely won and did not cover (Cincinnati, Tampa Bay). This is yet another nice trap game for Carolina. The Pack are 0-3 while Carolina is still considered an elite team by many despite their 1-2 record. This spread is too large considering that Carolina is losing and they are having turnover problems. Jake Delhomme alone has accounted for four INTs and two fumbles. His interception late last week let Miami win the game. The Panthers are performing like a middle-of-the-road team as are the Packers. The Packers really need a win. Mike Sherman is 10-2 ATS as coach of the Packers after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their past 3 games. Carolina does not perform well in the favorite role. They are 6-15 as a favorite over the past three seasons including 3-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Week four underdogs vs. teams with 2+ losses cover the spread about 75% of the time in the NFL. This game looks alot like the Detroit/Tampa Bay and Houston/Cincinnati games this weekend. Both look like they should be huge blowouts by the favorite. And, like those two, I expect a surprise in which the underdog keeps it close. Two stars on the Packers plus the points.