3-2 last week and now 43-20 (68%) on a star basis on the season. Four picks on Sunday this week.

My Week 4 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck!

**San Diego +5.5 over NEW ENGLAND (1:00 Eastern)

Two teams that needed a win last week did. New England went into Pittsburgh and silenced the critics, winning as an underdog (solidifying in many people's minds that this is a team that you should never bet against). San Diego avoided 0-3 by handing the then 2-0 Giants a big loss. Both teams are riding some confidence into this game but San Diego has more to be cheery about. New England lost Rodney Harrison, their best defender, for the year. Gone now are Harrison, Ty Law, Ted Johnson and Tedy Bruschi as well as Charlie Weis and Romeo Crenel. This is NOT the same Patriots club that won those Super Bowls. Yes, they still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. These guys will help them win games like they did last week. But the point is, they will lose more than they did last year. There's enough stacked against Super Bowl champs as it is but these injuries and the exodus of assistant coaches has left this team in a much worse position. To top it off, both of New England's starting cornerbacks are questionable for this game and offensive tackle Matt Light is now out! Not even this team can overcome this much adversity week after week. Marty Schottenheimer rediscoverd LaDanian Tomlinson last game. As a result, he had a monster game as did Drew Brees. Expect San Diego to move the ball effectively in this one. They are on an emotional high while New England is tired and beat up already in week four. They left a lot on the field last week. The Chargers are 12-1 following their last thirteen blowout wins by 21+ points. Also, road underdogs off a big game in which they gained over 450 yards of total offense cover the spread over two thirds of the time next week. This line is off quite a bit. Yes, I know about the Patriots 21-game home win streak. But, we'll go against that here and back the Chargers for two stars. They may not win but I definitely expect them to keep it closer than this spread.

*Seattle +2 over WASHINGTON (1:00 Eastern)

Why is Washington favored here? Yes, they can play defense but they have no offense to speak of. They've scored two offensive touchdowns so far in their first two games. They are 2-0 but we all know they really should be 1-1. Those two offensive touchdowns, and the Redskins victory in that game, came as a result of Cowboys brain-farts. Similar to the San Diego situation, Mike Holmgren "rediscovered" Shaun Alexander last week as he rolled to 140 yards and 4 touchdowns. Seattle is the better team here. If Alexander can have mediocre success, the Redskins won't be able to score enough to keep up. We'll back the better team as an underdog here for one star.

**Philadelphia +2 over KANSAS CITY (4:15 Eastern)

We went against the Eagles last week due to situation. They were ripe for a big letdown and the scene played out perfectly as they nearly lost outright as a nine point favorite. This week, I like them a lot to bounce back in a strong way. Last week they were facing the lowly Oakland Raiders at home. They were coming off a huge 42-3 blowout win over San Francisco. Everyone was talking about how impressive TO and McNabb were and how great it was for McNabb to play so well with injury. Against the Raiders, they were flat, as expected. Not so this week. Tthey must now go on the road to play a Kansas City team that, despite their poor showing in Denver, is still viewed as a Super Bowl contender. Big road test for the Eagles and you can rest assured that they'll be focused. Kansas City on the other hand will be feeling the effects of a monster beating by a division rival on national TV. They're coming off a short week of rest and were so geared up for the Denver game, have not had the time to mentally prepare in the right way for this one. Kansas City's passing offense has been TERRIBLE this year. Trent Green has thrown for just 658 yards, one touchdown and three picks. For Philly, not only has Owens been performing like last year, but Brian Westbrook has been phenomenal. Philly tends to win games that are expected to be close. They are 42-24 ATS since 1992 in games lined at -3 to +3. My computer simulation picks Philly in this game and I agree - they are better and well motivated. Two stars on the Eagles.

****Dallas +3.5 over OAKLAND (4:15 Eastern)

As I always say, the public is wrong. This is why most bettors lose and sportsbooks laugh to the bank. Last week we knew the public was all over Philadelphia vs. Oakland. They were wrong. They also loved Dallas to beat the lowly 49ers who were trounced 49-3 the week prior. They were wrong. This week, after watching Oakland nearly beat Philadelphia, and Dallas nearly lose to San Francisco, they've changed their tune. Now, "Oakland is better than we thought and Dallas is just lucky!" Well, not so fast. Dallas showed a lot of moxie last week, coming back to beat San Francisco. It was a tough situation for them following their blown win against Washington. I don't view their near loss to San Francisco last week as a negative. I view their win, in that situation, as a positive. The could have easily folded tent and lost but they didn't. Dallas is the much better team here folks and they are getting points. Their offense is clicking with Julius Jones and great play from Drew Bledsoe. They've scored 75 points in three games. Oakland's offense has potential and has shown some signs of brilliance but it isn't there yet. Heck, if you can't run for more than 22 yards on 21 carries vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, you don't have much of an offense. LaMont Jordan is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. Dallas has the 5th ranked offense. Oakland's is 8th. Dallas' defense is ranked 23rd. Oakland's is 29th. Dallas should be 3-0 and Oakland is 0-3. Why is Oakland favored? Got me! Over the past three seasons, Oakland is 0-8 during October and 1-9 in games with a small spread. Week four favorites with fewer than two wins are horrible against the spread, losing about 3 out of every 4 times. Shop around for lines and get 3.5 on this game and take the Cowboys here for four stars.