On
the surface, Kansas City looks like the play here.
They are tough this year with their defense stepping
up (averaging 12 points per game). However,
their offense seems to have taken a bit of a step
backwards.
Sure,
they
have
put up
an
average of 25 points per game. But, that's down from
last year and Trent Green has done virtually nothing.
Denver has been a mixed bag - losing big to Miami
in week 1 and then fighting hard for a week 2 victory
over San Diego. After Miami's win yesterday, that
Denver loss is looking a little less terrible. But,
without Champ Bailey's late interception last week,
Denver would be sitting at 0-2 here. Jake Plummer
gives them a chance to lose each week but he can
also make some big plays.
Systems/trends
wise, this Denver game mirrors the Seattle/Arizona
game fairly closely. Divisional favorites off a
win do very well in the NFL. This
week Seattle covered under that system. Also,
home teams off a close win in September cover the
number
about two-thirds of the time. Again, Seattle qualified
for this trend and covered this weekend. Going
for Kansas City is the fact that underdogs off a
road
win cover the spread about two thirds of the time
when facing a team off a home win. Overall, no clear
advantage for either team.
Denver
at home on Monday night is not a team I can easily
go against.
Especially since the Broncos are 8-5 ATS vs.
KC in Denver since 1992 including 2-0 the past two
seasons. Shanahan is also 25-15 during September.
This place will be rocking tonight.
My computer
prediction sees a pretty close game here
with KC actually coming out on top. If I were
forced to make a pick, I'd take what I see
to be the stronger team (Kansas City) plus
the field goal as they could easily win the
game and if not, they might still cover the
spread. However, I'm going to lay off this
one as I
just don't see enough evidence to back either
team. Good luck to you tonight!
