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NFL Foobtall
Premium Edition
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2005
Week 2 Monday
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First
losing day of the season yesterday at 2-3-1 (3-4-1
on a star basis). View prior 2005
NFL Picks. We've got a pick tonight in the New Orleans
vs. NY Giants game and we'll pass on the other.
My Week
3 NFL Computer Predictions & Analysis are
available for viewing. These predictions are based
on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands
of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping
- not a replacement. The computer can't take into
account emotion or situations.
Good
luck!

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**NEW
ORLEANS +3.5 over NY Giants (7:30 Eastern)
We
got the win on New Orleans as a big underdog last
week. We knew that their emotions (and a solid team)
would help them to a victory. Will those emotions
spill over into this week? You bet! They are still
"playing for everyone in New Orleans" and they will
enjoy some crowd support tonight from New Yorkers
who still remember 9-11. My computer
matchup predicts
a very close game here and my analysis tells me the
same thing. Getting 3.5 points in that situation
is a gift. I capped this game as a road game for
New Orleans, which in effect it is. I think the public
is underestimating this Saints team. Did you see
what Carolina did to the defending Super Bowl champs
yesterday? I did. And New Orleans beat Carolina one
week ago in Carolina. I also think that the Public
is overreacting to New York's blowout win over Arizona
last week. The Giants dominated on way to a 42-19
victory. That kind of win is what has pushed this
off the magic numnber of -3 to -3.5. What most people
didn't see is that the Giants trailed that game 13-7
at half. They got help from their special teams who
returned two kicks for touchdowns. The Giants would
have won that game without those returns but they
inflated the score, and in the process, the value
of the Giants in the public's eye. New Orleans is
16-6 on the road off a win over a division rival
since 1992. And, underdogs off a road win cover the
spread about two thirds of the time vs. favorites
off a home win. Also, week 2 road teams fare very
well against teams off a non-divisional home game.
New Orleans has the talent to play with New York.
And, I think for at least one more week, the emotional
edge and motivation which can't be underestimated.
We'll back the Saints
here plus the 3.5 points for two
stars.
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How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
NFL
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