7-2 last week and 67% on the preseason overall.

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Nick Saban hasn't shown he can win in the preseason. His team is 1-3 yet they are favored by over a field goal in this game. Jim Mora Jr., on the other hand is 3-1 this year. I've got a bucket full of situations favoring the Falcons in this game including the fact that underdogs with a winning record cover about 77% of the time vs. losing teams in the preseason. If you exclude winless teams from the equation above, the win rate for the underdog goes to about 9 out of 10. Also, while stats don't usually matter in the preseason, major rushing yard differences do. Teams that have outrushed their opponent by 40 or more yards/game on the season are 46-19 (71%) ATS since 1993. Saban isn't running the ball while Mora is. That's a recipe for an Atlanta win. Back Atlanta plus the points for two stars.

The public still doesn't get it with Cleveland. Yes, they will be horrid in the regular season. But this is not the regular season. They have been money thus far going 3-0 against the spread and we've made a pretty penny backing them. Why not one more time? Romeo Crenel knows that if he has any shot at winning games this year, he needs to build confidence during the preseason. That's why he's playing to win. Small dogs or favorites off two consecutive ATS wins late in the season perform very well against the spread. Chicago still has major issues to work out with their rookie QB and RB. We'll take Cleveland for one star.

The G-Men are on a roll and present good value at +5.5. Underdogs who are off a couple of bad years in the regular season do well in the preseason. And, underdogs in this range off a couple of straight-up wins find the momentum in their favor and usually cover the next game. This game will likely be a high-scoring affair that see the G-Men keeping it close. Don't read much into New England's blowout win from last week. The public is and we'll be smarter. Two stars on New York plus the points.

After an eek-out win in week one vs. San Diego in which Green Bay scored 10 points, they have really stunk it up the past two weeks. They scored 7 against Buffalo and lost by 20 and they scored 3 against New England, losing by 24 points. Those hurt, especially the last one. It's preseason but NFL players have pride. Coming off that kind of a loss, Green Bay will be playing a little bit harder tonight as they don't want to go into the regular season on such a sour note. This is a perfect bounce-back situation for Green Bay as a huge underdog. This line is ridiculous. Take the Packers plus the points for two stars.

Another big juicy line here that we'll jump ALL over. San Francisco has done better than San Diego this preseason. They come in at 2-1 SU and 3-0 against the spread while the Chargers have lost two of three. Week four matchups of this type almost always go the way of the visiting team with more wins. Underdogs in this range off home wins also cover the spread at a 2 out of 3 clip. San Diego doesn't feel pressure to win while San Francisco, similar to Cleveland, knows that winning is a good thing for them psychologically. The public again is reading too much into the relative strengths of these teams, forgetting that its the preseason and starters will see virtually no action. Love the Niners here and we'll back them for three stars.

We bucked the "go against Mike Martz in the preseason" rule last week for good reason, which you read about. It worked. Now we're back to normal. Martz is typically terrible in the preseason and he won't be winning two in a row. Underdogs vs. coaches like him win at a 67% clip in the preseason. The Rams are fat and happy off their big Monday Night blow out win and will be taking it easy tonight. One star on the Chiefs.

Denny Green has his team at 3-0 this preseason but they'll end on a down note. Denver had a nice win last week and will ride that momentum to a cover here. The Ponies are 3-0 and winning teams as road dogs do very well in the early season. Also, those off 2+ wins do very well. Put it all together and you have a confident rolling team as a pretty big dog. Worth two stars on the Broncs.