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NFL Foobtall
Premium Edition
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2005 Preseason
Week 3 Monday Night
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6-2
so far this week. Overall we're off to a solid start
to the young season as we sit at 13-7 (65%). This
newsletter looks at the Monday Night game.
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Good
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**St.
Louis +4 over DETROIT (8:00 Eastern Monday)
Don't
normally like backing Mike Martz in the preseason.
He's just 9-14 since his start in St. Louis including
1-1 this year and 1-3 in 2004. But, luckily here
for us he's facing another coach who doesn't play
to win during the preseason. Steve Mariucci is
also way under .500 as he's 0-2 this year and 12-21
dating back to his years in San Francisco. So,
let's call that a wash. If this weren't Mariucci's
team, I'd say that Detroit, sitting at 0-2 straight-up
and against the spread, would be playing to get
a win. But, this is Mariucci's team. A team that
really isn't a match for St. Louis talent-wise.
Especially when the Rams are playing on turf. Of
his expected playing time, Rams QB Marc Bulger
said this week, "I'd assume three quarters." In
this third game, starters will see a lot of time
and the Rams are just a much better team than the
Lions. In the regular season, they would be favored
here and instead we get 4 generous points. While
in the regular season I might be talking about
the home team having an advantage due to the Monday
Night lights. However, in this case I think it
favors the Rams. Martz is so self-facinated with
his passing game that he'll look to showcase it
here and his team will look different than they
normally do in the preseason. We'll back the Rams
to keep it close or win it. Two stars on the Rams.
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How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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