NFL Football Picks August 25, 2005

**NY Jets -6 over NY GIANTS (8:00 Eastern Friday)

With Eli Manning on the sidelines, Jessee Palmer, Tim Hasselbeck and Jared Lorenzen shoulder the load for the Giants on Friday night. The Giants lost to the Jets in this game last year, as they usually do, dropping the game by 7 points. Without Manning, this should be an old-fashioned blowout. Normally I don't like laying big chalk in preseason game, or in any game for that matter. But, going to make an exception here. The Jets have a lot going for them situationally here. In the last couple of weeks of the preseason, teams that are off 2 consecutive ATS and SU wins at home cover the spread about 80% of the time. Winning road teams off a home win also do very well covering about 75% of the time. Layer on the fact that Tom Coughlin is a perennial loser in the preseason and we have the recipe for an easy Jets cover. Two stars on the J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets.

**CLEVELAND +5.5 over Carolina (8:00 Eastern Friday)

Romeo Crennel has demonstrated a desire to win so far in the preseason. Will he let up in week 3 after two wins? Don't think so. As a 3 point dog and a 6.5 point dog, Crennel and company have won both straight-up. Yet, they find themselves as a big home dog here. I love it! Preseason home underdogs with 2 or more wins cover about 70% of the time. Coaches that are new to their team that find themselves in a home dog role cover over three quarters of the time including a sweet 2-0 record this year. This one lines up nicely for Cleveland and the generous points. We'll back the Browns for two stars.

*Arizona +3.5 over OAKLAND (9:30 Eastern Friday)

Yes, Oakland has lost two straight-up and ATS. Normally I like to back such teams as the public is usally against them. But, not here as Oakland finds themselves in the favorite role against the 2-0 Arizona Cardinals. We were on the Cards big last week. They could do some damage this season and during the preseason, Kurt Warner's chip remains on his shoulder. Undefeated teams off 2+ consecutive ATS wins nearly always cover the spread in their next game. And, underdogs with a winning record are 82% against the spread the last three years when facing a losing team. We'll back Arizona for another ATS win on Saturday for one star.

*Houston/DALLAS UNDER 38 (8:00 Eastern Saturday)

Neither of these teams can score. Houston is averaging 16.5 per game and Dallas is worse at 14.5. They are both playing pretty good defense too. Houston has allowed 18.5 per game while Dallas has held opponents to an average of 11.5! Games with totals in this range featuring non-conference opponents go UNDER about 60% of the time as the teams just don't know each other that well. On top of that, games featuring two teams that are both off upset underdog wins have gone UNDER 20-4 since 1993. The public is overreacting to the Houston win over Oakland and especially the Dallas win over Seattle under the prime-time Monday night lights. They are reading into that that these are good teams and good teams score points, right? This total should be several points lower than it is. As such, we'll take the UNDER for one star.

*Indianpolis/DENVER OVER 44.5 (8:00 Eastern Saturday)