2005
Season Team Wins: Over/Under Predictions
After
evaluating all of the team total for the season,
there are five that stick out as good bets in my book:
Philadelphia
Eagles UNDER 11.5 Wins
Three main reasons I like the under here. One, the public is on the OVER. This
team nearly won the Super Bowl and many thought they should have. The public
and media are convinced they can get back. Two, they've been to the NFC Championship
four times in a row. I view this as a reason to go UNDER, not OVER. Teams simply
cannot stay on top forever. They will eventually slide backwards and this is
a likely year for the Eagles. Third, T.O. Whether he plays or not, there's
been too much bad blood. This is a MAJOR distraction for the Eagles, despite
what anyone admits. Andy Reid has spent too much time dealing with this. Owens
and McNabb are not on speaking terms (what, is this high-school?!?). No matter
how you slice it, it's bad. It's gotten past the point of no return and he'll
either sit or continue to be a major distraction. It all adds up to a dissapointing
year for the Eagles. Everyone's on the OVER here so we'll go UNDER this total.
Buffalo
Bills OVER 8 Wins
This one seems easy to me. Buffalo won 9 games last year and finished the regular
season on a tear yet they are only expected to win 8 games in 2005? My power
ratings had this team as the strongest in the league at the end of the regualr
season - better than Philly and better than New England. Their defense was
incredible in 2004 and once they got their offense on track, they were one
of the best teams in the league. Willis McGahee emerged last year as a great
back and this team has a slew of very good receivers. The big loss was at Quarterback
as Drew Bledsoe fled for Dallas. Rookie JP Losman takes the reigns and this
is the reason this total is so low. A rookie QB teamed with a great defense
didn't stop the Steelers from putting up 15 wins last year. For the Bills,
it all comes back to the defense. This defense is as good as they come and
will keep the Bills in every single game. Their schedule includes five road
games against teams that had losing records last year. I think they win more
than 8.
Atlanta
UNDER 9.5 Wins
Along with the St. Louis Rams, this team was one of the two pretenders in the
2004 playoffs. Neither of the two teams should have been there. As you'll see
below, I almost took the Rams UNDER this year but their number moved the wrong
way for me (dropping from 9 to 8.5). With the Falcons, though, we get 9.5 which
is just too high. Atlanta had the second easiest schedule of any NFL team (#31)
last year which masked their true identity. They only outscored their opponents
last year by three total points (340 to 337). Vick is an awesome spectacle
and this team has the best running game in the league. But, they don't have
a receiving corp and their defense is not good enough to support 10 wins. And,
while Vick is a good quarterback for fantasy leagues that award a lot of points
for runnning, and he's as fun as they come to watch, he's not yet a very good
passer. He completed only 56% of his passes in 2004 and that doesn't cut it.
Their schedule will be a lot tougher this year including games against New
England and Philadelphia, both of which they will lose. Opposing defenses will
adjust from last year and load up the line to stop the run. I believe Atlanta
should have won about 9 games last year, not 11. Go UNDER here.
Kansas
City OVER 9 Wins
This offense is as good as they come. Last year they put up over 30 points
per game. If they can just play some defense, they can be a real contender.
Can they do it? I think their defense will be improved this year, one year
later than most thought it would. I was vocal about KC's defense stinking it
up yet again last year. You simply cannot turn things around that quickly by
just replacing your defensive coordinator. But, now Gunther Cunningham has
a year under his belt and has added some horses on the field with the addition
of Kendrell Bell, Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtain. They also drafted Derrick
Johnson in the first round who may contribute. They are coming off a very tough
schedule last year which doesn't get a lot easier this year in the tough AFC
West but it does get easier. With Dick Vermeil at the helm at this offense,
these guys can easily reach or exceed 9 wins. Go OVER.
Tampa
Bay OVER 7.5 Wins
After two rough years, it's almost hard to remember the mystique that surrounded
John Gruden after the 2002 Super Bowl win. This guy won in Oakland and then
took the Bucs to the Super Bowl immediately, defeating his old team as a big
underdog. Has he forgotten how to coach? I don't think so. Granted, they had
an easy schedule and the ball bounced their way in 2002 (+17 on turnovers).
I don't think they'll be making the Super Bowl this year. But, there are some
positive changes for the Bucs. Brian Griese emerged as a very good quarterback
in the Gruden system last year. He didn't play the first four games, all Bucs
losses. They are a good team with him at the helm. They also had a bad turnover
year last year at -9 which contributed to their 5-11 record. Several of those
losses came late in the season after they packed things in, unable to recover
from their bad start. Thanks to a solid defense (#5 last year), they actually
outgained their opponents by an average of 25 yards per game in 2004 and scored
as many points as their opponents. All of this indicates they were better than
a 5-11 team last year and should get to .500 or better this season. Go OVER
7.5 wins here.
Others
that almost made the cut:
San
Diego OVER 8.5 Wins - Last year not a fluke. Would
take at OVER 8.
Minnesota
UNDER 9.5 Wins - No Randy and not sold on Tice.
Jacksonville
UNDER 8.5 Wins - Offense is just average. But, easy
schedule.
Dallas
UNDER 8.5 Wins - Hard to go against Parcells but this
team has issues.
Oakland
UNDER 8 Wins - Randy Moss is the X factor but these
guys aren't that good.
Denver
OVER 8.5 Wins - Team is solid on both sides of the
ball. But, tough schedule. Can easily get 9+ wins in
regular season. Getting a win in the playoffs? That's
another story.
St.
Louis UNDER 8.5 Wins - Would have loved this at opening
line of 9. Martz too pass-oriented. But, very easy
schedule might get them over this total.
Good
luck with your bets!
