Let the football begin! We've hit 60% over the past three years in the preseason and this week we like four games. And, you guessed it... they are all underdogs. Let's get right to 'em.

In case you missed it...
  How to Bet the NFL Preseason
  2005 NFL Preview
  Six Reasons to Bet Underdogs in the NFL

View past season NFL Picks.

Good luck this weekend!

The Pats are all business all the time. They don't take a play off, never mind a full game. True to form, Belichick always has his team prepared - starters and backups. They don't dare play poorly. As a result, Belichick's teams win 60% of the preseason games they play. In 2004 the Pats broke from that mold losing 3 of 4. But, I chalk that up to an anomoly. In 2003 they were a perfect 4-0 and I expect them to get back to their winning ways this year. Getting them as an underdog is a nice present. OK, enough about Belichick. How about Marvin Lewis? In two years he has posted a horrible 2-6 record in the preseason. He's using the preseason to evaluate players and doesn't appear to care much about winning or losing. New England's got depth and discipline throughout their lineup. Their second and third string players are well coached and should play well here with less rust than their opponent. Doug Flutie should see some action for New England and despite his age, he's no normal 3rd stringer. Take the Pats and the points here for one star.

Chicago and Lovie Smith showed me someting on Monday night as they came back to beat the Dolphins in a high-scoring affair. This is a team, after the season they had last year, that is in desperate need of some confidence. They got a boost in their first win and I think that carries over to this week with the shortened break. Mike Martz is another coach who doesn't play to win in the preseason. He's 2-6 the last two years and 7-14 since taking over the head coaching position for the Rams. Coaches who lose most of their preseason games are terrible bets as favorites. Glad to get points to boot. One star on Chicago.

In Tom Coughlin we have yet another coach who uses the preseason as it was intended - to evaluate players. He went 1-3 last year during the preseason. Also, we get to back a home underdog against this "poor record" coach which is usually a profitable venture. Add into the mix that new coaches such as Romeo Crennel tend to like to impress the home crowd by starting off on a positive note. As home underdogs, brand new coaches fair very well. Why? They want to get fans and the media on their side early and want to avoid an early home stinker at all costs. Last year this situation only came up once as Denny Green found his team a 3-point underdog at home against Oakland in week 3 of the preseason. His team lost the game by a point but covered the spread. Over the past ten years, this has been one of the most reliable predictors, hitting at about 75% against the spread. One star on the Browns here.