NBA Basketball
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April 23, 2006 |
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darrell,
Started off the playoffs on a winning note. Three more picks today.
My NBA Power Rankings are updated weekly and can be found here.
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Good luck , darrell!

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Game: Indiana at New Jersey (1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on New Jersey -7
The New Jersey Nets 2nd half of the season has rewarded them with an opportunity to have home court advantage against the Pacers this afternoon. One of the hottest 2nd half teams this year, the Nets look to get an early jump on the Pacers in this series. I like this matchup for several reasons including the opposite trends of both teams. While the Pacers are 1-10-1 ATS after a SU win, just 1-6 ATS on the road, and 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog, the Nets are a solid 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a playoff team favored by 5-10 points and 7-1 ATS after following a loss as they gave their starters rest and played their reserves near the end of the year. The first game of this series at New Jersey will have the fans riled up as the Nets have all the attention up near the New York/New Jersey border now and I expect the playoff atmosphere, the way they have been playing currently, and the lack of Pacer play to translate into a win and cover. Nets here.
Game: Los Angeles at Phoenix (3:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 1 star on Phoenix -7
Did you know that Phoenix despite its injuries, have dominated the series against the Lakers this year? Why? The Suns have had a very simple philosophy when playing the Lakers this year. They will defend everybody but Kobe Bryant. Sounds crazy huh? But, it has worked. Phoenix is a solid 6-1 ATS against the Lakers of late and 3-0 ATS against the Lakers at Phoenix. The Lakers are an astonishing 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road playoff games. Kobe will get his but the rest of the team can't keep up. And, they can't defend the breadth of this Suns team. Bottom line is that the Lakers are a different on the road than they are at home. Showtime seems to fall short on the road and I think it will be no different today as the Suns do not let up in scoring throughout the game and given the Lakers lack of scoring and droughts that has haunted them all year, I expect a Suns win and more importantly a great shot at a cover as Phoenix in their two games against the Lakers this year have won by 11 and 13. Let's ride the Suns to dominate once again in game one at home against the Lakers who struggle miserably on the road and especially during the playoffs.
Game: Memphis at Dallas (9:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Dallas -7
The Dallas Mavericks always turn it up a notch during playoff games. The atmosphere is insane, much like Mark Cuban the owner of the Mavs. The owner more than lets his players know what he expects of them and this is no different as everyone is aware that Dallas is in for a dogfight against the Grizzlies in this short 5 game series. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, the Grizzlies are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road playoff dog of 5-10 points, and more importantly, Memphis is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 meetings and 2-5-1 in their last 8 games in Dallas. I mention the latter fact to point out that if during the regular sesaon this team is 2-5-1 ATS at Dallas, during playoff time with a rested Dallas team, things are just going to get harder for the Grizzlies who are a much less effective team on the road as compared to on their home court. Mavs here to start off the series on a right note in front of their fans and their owner.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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