darrell,

Three NBA picks today.

My NBA Power Rankings are updated weekly and can be found here.

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Good luck , darrell!

Game: Chicago at Miami (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Miami -3

Chicago needs to keep winning to assure their playoff future but Miami doesn't want to back down here. These two teams could meet in the opening round so Miami wants to send a message. They also want to keep winning, entering the playoffs on a good streak. The Head have won 12 of their last 18 games and matchup well against the Bulls. The Heat are 9-1 straight up against Chicago over hte last three seasons, winning 60% ATS. Here in Miami, the Bulls have lost the last four and covered just one of them. Miami scores 102.6 per game at home. Chicago has performed well of late, winning seven of eight. But, they are just 2-2 ATS over their last four. Miami is 31-17 as a home favorite. Heat here.

San Antonio is just 2-3 straight up and 0-5 ATS in their last five games. It's late in the season and they want to win, but have little motivation to pour it on and blowout their competition. They are more likely to rest starters if they get a comfortable lead. To get double digits on a home team against the Spurs right now is a gift. This line is just too big given the situation. Not sure whether Popovich is really going to rest his players to prep for the playoffs? Consider that the Spurs, a GREAT team, are just 5-15 ATS in April games over the past two seasons. Minny is off a 77-89 loss at Indiana but consider that double-digit home dogs off a loss are a 65% proposition in the NBA. Minny to cover here.

While I think San Antonio is laying too much, I don't see that here. First off all, we are laying big points on the HOME team here. Second of all, Detroit comes into this one off an embarrasing loss at Toronto in which they lost the game outright as a -8.5 favorite. Now the get the worst team in the league that is in turmoil and absolutely can't wait for this disasterous season to be over. New York put together a string of 3 surprising wins in early April but they have since dropped three straight and they lost nine straight before that. Their last loss was by 17 points to Milwaukee. Detroit can easily cover this spread with their eyes closed. Detroit still wants to stick it to Larry Brown and they are revenging another very embarrasing loss here. Detroit actually lost to New York and Larry Brown on March 17th. They were 9.5 point favorites in that one. Think that stung? Think they really want this one? I sure do. Pistons in a rout.