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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
NBA Basketball Premium Edition
April 01, 2006

darrell,

Three picks tonight in the NBA.

My NBA Power Rankings are updated weekly and can be found here.

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Good luck , darrell!

The Wunderdog

Complimentary Picks

Game: Indiana at MILWAUKEE (8:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Milwaukee -3.5

These two teams are still fighting for playoff position and that should create an almost playoff-like atmosphere this late in the season. Milwaukee is at home and has the edge on the Pacers for playoff positioning, not to mention that it is unclear if J. O'Neal and/or S. Jackson will be playing for Indiana tonight. The Bucks score more points per game and do this by having a better shooting percentage and free throw percentage. The Bucks have been shooting nearly 52% from the floor and just under 50% from 3-point range in their last 5 games being played which has helped them score nearly 113ppg in that same period of time. The Bucks have lost just two of their last nine games played ATS as the Pacers have lost their last 3 SU and last 2 ATS. The Bucks are clearly the hot team and giving just 3 points here at home vs the Pacers who have not been playing as well. Give the points and take the Bucks to get a quality win at home tonight.


Game: Boston at CHICAGO (8:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Boston +2

Boston is a scoring machine. They have two of the better scorers in today's game with Szcerbiak and Pierce. All of their starters scored in double digits as they won on the 29th. They have scored over 101 ppg in their last 5 games played and are shooting at a higher field goal and higher free throw percentage than Chicago is this year. In the last 5 games, as these teams match up against one another, Boston has also gotten more rebounds per game and shot over 150% better from 3-point range (Chicago shooting less than 30% from behind the arc). This game will surely have a lot of scoring on both ends of the floor, but in the end, Pierce is likely to be the difference maker. The Bulls can score points, but their defense is not strong enough to match up and guard Pierce one on one and will leave the passing lanes open for him to work the ball to the rest of his team. Take the points in this close game as Boston has the slight edge to win SU if this becomes a shoot-out.


Game: Utah at PORTLAND (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Utah -5.5

Portland is a team who has not produced well all season. This is shown by their 20-51 record on the year as it is also shown with their 7 covers ATS in their last 27 games Portland's scoring average is under 89 ppg on the year and they do not get many second or third looks at the basket due to their 38 rebounds per game. More recent trends show that Portland is giving up more than 105 ppg in their last 5 played as well as shooting around 42% from the floor in that same period of time. On the other side of the floor, when looking at Utah, you will see that they are shooting 50% from the floor, getting nearly 42 rebounds per game and scoring almost 100 ppg in the last 5 that they have played. Utah has gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 away games and have Andrei Kirilenko who can put a triple-double in the box score on any given night. Look for the Utah Jazz to take control of this game early and empty their bench at the end of this game as it turns into a blowout. Take Utah -5.5 in this game.


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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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The Wunderdog

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