NBA Basketball
Premium Edition |
March 18, 2006 |
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darrell,
2-1 last night and 6-2 on a star basis as the four star came in. The Clippers missed by a point to ruin the perfect night. Three picks tonight.
My NBA Power Rankings are here.
Good luck , darrell!

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**Denver/NEW ORLEANS OVER 194 (8:05 Eastern)
This total has already risen from 190 to 194. Games with a totalbetween 190 and 199.5 points with a losing home team off a road loss against a division rival have gone OVER 65% of the time since 1996. Also, games in that total range featuring a good offensive team like Denver that is scoring 99+ points/game on the season have gone OVER 39-19 (67%) over the past five seasons if that team has scored 100 points or more in 5 straight games. Denver is averaging 104 ppg and 103 ppg allowed over their last five games. New Orleans isn't scoring but they are allowing nearly 100 per game over their last five. Look for the Nuggets to score a ton and for this game to sail OVER. Two stars on the OVER>
**MILWAUKEE -10 over Portland (8:35 Eastern)
Portland got bombed at Chicago and New Jersey, and plays its 4th straight road game here. It's also their 4th game in 5 nights, the second of a back to back spot after losing by 15 at Cleveland. Friday's loss made it nine straight road losses. Portland is on a 3-14 SU, 4-13 ATS run. Portland is also 6-28 SU, 13-21 ATS on the road, averaging just 86 ppg (while giving up 99 ppg). Milwaukee comes home after playing at Toronto Friday and will be looking to take out its frustrating one-point loss last night on somebody. The Bucks, currently in a playoff position and just by a small margin, have not won two consecutive home games ATS since February 4. Look for this angle to change tonight as Portland is road weary and wanting to go home. Two stars on the Bucks over the hapless road Blazers.
***San Antonio -4.5 over HOUSTON (8:35 Eastern)
The Spurs have dominated the Rockets at San Antonio and have won both meetings there this season. However, the Rockets earned the cover in each of those games and they have also scored outright upsets the last two times the teams faced each other at Houston. Tonight's situation is a bit different with T-Mac out. He was on the floor in the previovs games and that difference cannot be underestimated. There will be 20+ points missing from Houston's lineup tonight and I think that will be to much for the Rockets to overcome. Spurs minus the points for three stars.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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