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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
NCAA Basketball Premium Edition
April 03, 2006

darrell,

While the two Final Four games did not treat us right, we're still entering this game hitting 60% on all tournamentpicks with 3-star picks having won 7 out of 8. I've got another three start in tonight's game.

As we wrap up the season, it's been a very profitable one as we went 173-127 on the year. $100 flat bettors are up $3,330 on the season and those playing based on star recommendations netted over $6,100 after the vig.

Thanks for being with me this college basketball season and we'll see you next year. In the meantime, I hope you are subscribed to my baseball, hockey, NBA and football newsletters. If not, please let me know and I can get you on those lists.

FLORIDA versus UCLA
Tonight's gamepits the east coast against the west coast. It's offense versus defense. Or is it? Many talk about the UCLA defense, but what about Florida and their ability to hold opponenets to under 64 ppg - about 4 more than UCLA and the ability of their offense to put well over 75ppg. We have seen both of these teams rise to the challenge time and time again.

When we thought the Gators would be prone to leave early as they have done the past 3 years - twice in the first round in Donovan's tenure - they held serve against South Alabama and took care of a solid Wisconsin-Milwaukee team. Just when we thought the Gators would possibly get dominated and out "athleticized" their opponents and moved on.

When challenged by the upstart Hoyas, they held once again matching Georgetown's intensity, size and strength. Many thought that at least Villanova, the favorites of quite a few office pools across America would end the run of the SEC school predominately thought of for their football program. But the Gatorswon that one too. Finally, many thought that George Mason would at least give the Gators a scare as they defeated thefour of the last sevenNational Champions to get to this stage and two of last year's Final Four Teams. Yet once again the Gators dominate and made easy work of the Patriots, who would have even failed to cover a double digit spread.

Can the Gators do it again here against a UCLA team that prides itself on defense? After all, the Bruins have finally returned to the lime light - considering that they were below .500 for the first time in team history since before the Wooden era. Yet, this team has stormed back defeating the likes of Gonzaga, Memphis and now what many thought would at least be a competitive game with LSU - a blowout. This team takes their tenacious D against Florida who has seen such defenses before though with South Carolina and Georgetown.

Can they stand up again to the D? Can UCLA put up enough points to keep with Florida if this game turns into a shooting match? Will Noah be effecting down low or will Maoute and Hollis be too much? Will the guard play of Farmer and Affalo be the finishing touches or will Green and Humphries light it up from behind the arc? There are so many questions to be answered.

While attention should be paid to the players,I want to focus on an aspect that doesn't get enough attention - the coaching.

I am a firm beleiver that solid coaching wins championships. After all, a coach can have all the talent in the world, but if he fails to inspire his players or fails to put together a solid game plan, his team will fail to perform. Just look how far Jim L took George Mason this year. Both Donovan and Howland have motivated and coached supremely this year. And they are both tournament tested.

Ben Howland has been here before as a player and a coach. As a player he led little known Weber State and as a coach he is one of an elite group that has led 3 different schools to the NCAA Championships including Northern Arizona, Pittsburgh and now UCLA. At Pitt, he led that team to consecutive sweet 16 championships and he turned that program around as they did not have one 20 win season in 11 years to 2 consecutive NCAAB Sweet 16 bids. However, one thing that has always remained in Howland's team is the fact that they all play sound defense. From N. Arizona, to Pitt to UCLA, he beleives defense and sound play rather than offense with disregard for defense and flashy play is not the keys to success.

Billy Donovan comes from a pedigree of coaching success as he coached in Kentucky as an assited through the late 80's and after some shifting landed the the head coaching job in Marshall and at 28 became the youngest college basketball coach in the nation. Soon after, UF came knocking. Prior to his arrival, the Gators had just five 20 win seasons and five NCAA tournament apperances . Yet, since then, they have now had 7 straight NCAAB apperances and 7 straight NCAAB 20 win seasons. On top of that, the Gators defended their SEC title for the 2nd consecutive year. This is Donovan's 4th trip to the NCAAB Final 4 as he has been here once as an assitant coach, once as a player, once in the 2000 championsip game where they fell to short to now, where they face the Bruins of UCLA.

So, what now? Both teams have had great and solid runs through the championships as they are 5-0 ATS respectively through their run of late.Both teams are young and talented. Both have coaches that have turned programs around from the grass roots and can put together a game plan that is second to none. Is there a play in all this tangle? You better beleive it and I have it.

Please Tell A Friend about this newsletter and they'll thank you!

Good luck , darrell!

The Wunderdog

Premium Picks

Game: Florida vs. Ucla (9:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on UNDER 128

It is very difficult to pick a side in this game. After all, Florida has advanced by winning the SEC championship beating the likes of South Carolina - the winner of the NIT. This game will be an important factor in deciding this under as you will see when you continue to read. Florida also beat Villanova, Georgetown, the Cinderella George Mason who has knocked off monsters before this game and a good Wisconsin-Milaukee team. On the same token, UCLA has knocked their fare share of competition including defeating a solid Tide team, the Zags who only had lost 3 games this season, and a Memphis team who had the best offense in America. The Bruins shut that offense down and busted many office brackets. Thus, whose trend do you knock? Do you knock the Gators 5-0 ATS run or 12-1 ATS run in their last 13 non-conference games - or - do you buck the Bruins 5-0 ATS run when they are dogged by 0-6 points or their 7-2 ATS run in the last 9 games in neutral siting. Do you go against UCLA's great road underdog record? Hard to say. Instead, let's look for more of an edge. I think I've found one with the under here. Consider this: The Gators under is 6-0 in their last 6 games on neutral sites and the under is also 6-1 when the Gators are favored by 0-6 points. The Bruins are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog and the under is 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0-6.5 points. Besides the trends, there is practical knowledge that we can apply here as well. When the Gators played defensive teams such as South Carolina in the SEC championship and Georgetown, the totals for both of those games were 96 and 110 respectively. UCLA played what might be the best offensive and most explosive team in the nation in Memphis and the game totaled 95. Then, this team played LSU in the Final Four and the game totaled 104. The bottom line is, every trend points to Florida going under as they do against defensive teams and they too are a solid defensive team holding teams to under 64 ppg. Furthermore, UCLA prides itself on defense and holds teams under 59 ppg and also does not put up too many points on the offensive end. Why pick a side? Betting is about seeing where the best value is, and in this case, it is clearly on the under in this year's Men's NCAA Championship.


Resources

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College Basketball Game-of-the-Day Preview
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Pass It On
How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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The Wunderdog

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