NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
March 26, 2006 |
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darrell,
Got the W with UCLA last night. We're now 16-10 (62%) in the tournament and 7-1 on the 3-star picks. Have picks in both games today for you.
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Good luck , darrell!
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Game: George Mason vs. Connecticut (2:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on George Mason +8
It looks like UCONN has the easiest road to the final four of all the teams that were playing this weekend. They are the highest overall ranked team left and they are playing the 11th seeded George Mason team. Now, as the only real public favorite left in the tourney, we again get great value fading them against the spread. They haven't won a game ATS in six tries! And, this is practically a home game for George Mason. While Connecticut has a good traveling team and will be happy to move away from all the home media, they will be in the Verizon Center which is a short trip from the George Mason campus and this will be much more of an away game than a game on a neutral court. Think about how much that helped UCLA yesterday. George Mason has covered their last 3 games ATS including a very impressive dominating win over Wichita State. These two teams play very different styles of basketball. UCONN likes to move the ball and has no problem scoring points, while George Mason has good defense and does not want to get into a shoot out with anyone. In its last 5 games, Connecticut has scored around the same points as they have averaged all year, but they have given up almost 14ppg more than they have done the rest of the season. This is not the case for George Mason who is still scoring and giving up about the same as they have all year. Again, I am not predicting a Mason win, but there have been so many games won by such a small number that I see no reason for the line to be this high. Take the pseudo-home team in George Mason with the 8 points in this game.
Game: Florida vs. Villanova (5:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Florida +1
Trivia Question: Who has the highest win percentage historically vs the #1 seed in the Elite 8? Answer: the 3 seed. That's right, they have done better than even the number 2 seeds. The 3 seed has an overall record of 6-6 vs the 1 seeds when they face each other here in the Elite 8 and this is the first time in the first 4 rounds that the #1 seeds don't have a winning record against their opponent. The #1 seeded teams that have won less than 9 of their last 10 pre-tournament games are just 1-4 and the rest are 5-2. Villanova has gone 8-2 in their past 10. A closer look shows that the 3 seeded teams who win by less than 10 ppg have gone 0-4 while those 3 seeded teams who have won by more than 10 ppg have gone 6-2. Florida has a winning margin of over 15 ppg. These are two very talented basketball programs and there is no doubt that this game may come down to a final shot in overtime for one of these teams to win by one point as so many other teams have done so far in this tournament. The main difference between these two teams is when you look at their most recent games (all on neutral courts). Nova has played 5 and only covered ATS once, while Florida has played their last 6 games on a neutral floor and has only one loss ATS. When looking at how these team teams match up against one another you will see that Florida edges Nova in ppg, field goal percentage, rebounding and the always important fact that they have a deeper bench. Look for Nova to try and use as many 3-guard lineups as they can and pressure the ball handlers of Florida, but in the end the play of Noah and his supporting cast is going to be too much for Nova. Take Florida getting the points in this game, but don't think of it as an upset of Florida moves on to the final four.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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