NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
March 20, 2006 |
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darrell,
4-1 yesterday and now hitting 70% (14-6) so far in the tourney. We'll pick things up in the Sweet 16 on Thursday. Until then we have a little NIT. Tonight there's a couple of games I like.
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Good luck , darrell!

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**ST. JOE'S -6 over Hofstra (7:00 Eastern)
St Joe's is 7-1 ATS in last 8 overall. Last year in a similar spot they were 7 point home favorites and won by 9 points. They are now 4-1 ATS on nuetral or home floor and 7-1 ATS their last 8. St. Joe's has two injuries in Mallon who will likely play (ankle injury) and Navis who is 50-50 - also with an ankle problem. St. Joe's has the better defense and, especially at home, should be able to control the game better and keep it a lower scoring game which they prefer. They turn the ball over less and I think they will look to pressure Hofstra here. Our home team also has a deeper bench and they will use it to their advantage as they make hofstra move around a lot on both sides of the ball. Hofstra has shot 63% from FT line in their last 5 games while Joe's in that same period of time has shot just over 80%. Back to defense for a moment. St. Joe's gives up just 57.5 ppg at home while Hofstra allows 71.2 ppg away. Against common opponents this season, Hofstra allowed 71 ppg while Joe's allowed 54 ppg. Take the better defense at home in a blow out here. St. Josephs for two stars.
**Miami +4.5 over CREIGHTON (8:00 Eastern)
Creighton's guard Josh Dotzler doesn't look like he will play today. He sat out their lsat game too and is surely an all-around solid player who will be missed. Miami is a solid 17-8 ATS in their last 25 away games. THey score more per game and shoot better from the both the field and the free throw line. They also take care of the ball better than Creighton. In their last five games, Creighton managed just under 29% from beyond the arc while Miami poured in 38% and this could play a big role tonight. Miami enjoys the underdog rolej and they actually do better ATS on the road than at home. Two stars on the Canes plus the points.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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