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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
NCAA Basketball Premium Edition
March 18, 2006

darrell,

Doesn't get much better than yesterday as we went 5-0 in college and 2-1 in the NBA for a 7-1 day. Four picks today in college.

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Good luck , darrell!

The Wunderdog

 
Premium Picks

**Montana +10.5 over Boston College (12:00 Eastern)

BC needed overtime to escape Pacific. After so many upsets yesterday, they have to be thankful not to have fallen the the #13 seed. But, that wasn't a good sign. For them to be laying double digits here doesn't make sense to me. Sure, Montana is a #12 seed but they are not getting enough respect. They easily covered the spread by 13.5 points against Nevada in the first round. This is a stiffer test for them but they won't be laying down here. BC is a fan favorite this year and their OT scare didn't scare off bettors despite being down by double digits to Pacific late in that game. Montana is now 8-1 ATS as a dog this season. NCAA favorites seeded 4 or higher, off 2+ ATS wins are just 27-62 (30%) ATS since 1997. Montana covers the big number here. Two stars on Montanta.

**George Washington +9 over Duke (1:10 Eastern)

J.J. Redick is one of the best players in college basketball and showed this as he achieved the all time Duke scoring record earlier this year. He has the help of S. Williams very often and in many of their wins a third player stepped up. The only problem with this 1-2 punch is that they still need a third player to do well and it is never clear who that player will be. In short, Duke doesn't play balanced team basketball. When you look at GW though, team basketball with plenty of balance is exactly what you see. They have five players on their roster that average between 11 and 15 points per game and two players who average over 7 boards per game. They play great team defense causing over 18 turnovers per game and they have out rebounded their opponents by almost 100 this season. GW averages almost as many points per game as Duke by shooting the 3 well and executing their fast break opportunities. Duke will have their hands full as their opponent's leading scorer could come from any one of their starting five. George Washington can, on the flipside, focus on one guy - JJ. Not only is Redick's stamina in question but Duke's team defense of big men on the post is of concern. It just so happens that they face one of the best big men in the tournament in GW's Pops Mensah-Bonsu today. Pops had a knee injury but rested it at the end of the season and looked fine in their opening game. Look for GW to work the ball down low often with the option of tossing it out beyond the arc when Duke double teams down low. This game could surely come down to a buzzer beater and that is why I like the underdog GW getting 9 to boot. Two stars on GW.

**Wichita State +3 over Tennessee (3:40 Eastern)

Tennessee narrowly escaped 15th seed Winthrop in the first round while Wichita crushed Seton Hall by 20 points. It was one of the most lopsided wins of round 1 and it came against a #10 seed. With Wichita crushing a better opponent (Seton vs. Pacific) and Tennessee narrowly escaping a loss to a #15 seed, why is Tennessee favored here? Don't forget that Tennessee is now just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They are also 5-20 ATS in all tournament games over the past ten years. Take the Shockers to shock Tennessee here. Two stars on Wichita State plus the points.

**Washington +2 over Illinois (5:30 Eastern)

I was impressed by Washington's 765-61 victory over Utah State in the first round. I thought Utah State would give them a run but I was wrong. Pac 10 Player of the Year Brandon Roy poured in 28 points and led the Huskies to an easy victory. I was less imnpressed by Illinoi's 9 point victory over Air Force. AFA really had no business even being in this tournament and to only win by 9 is a letdown in my book. I think the Pac 10 is not getting enough respect and the Big Ten too much respect. Two stars on the Huskies.

Resources

College Basketball Resources

  Up-to-Date NCAA Basketball ATS Records
  College Basketball Game-of-the-Day Preview
  Live NCAA Basketball Lines

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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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