darrell,

Five picks for Friday's games include a favorite and four dogs. Good luck to you today.

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Good luck , darrell!

***Davidson +11 over Ohio State (12:15 Eastern)

One and two seeds went 1-2 ATS yesterday and I expect more of the same today. We were on all three of those games and I like three more of these matchups today. Ohio State is the first of three top seeds I'm fading on Friday. Ohio State enters the tourney off a loss to Iowa while Davidson won four straight and six of their last seven. I like that momentum. I also like the preformance of Davidson against common opponents this year. Both teams played St. Joe's twice and UT-Chattanooga once. Ohios State won all three of their games. They beat St. Joes by 9 and 7 and beat UTC by 17. Good stuff. But, Davidson didn't do that much worse. They beat UTC by 14, holding them to 53 points (Ohio State gave up 67 points). And, they split with Joe's. In their win over Joe's, they scored 100 points while Kentucky didn't manage more than 81 in their two wins. Point here being that Davidson is a pretty good team and shouldn't be getting 11 points. Thad Matta hasn't proven very successful in the NCAA's with a career 6-4 mark. And Ohio State is 1-10 ATS in neutral court games over the past three seasons. Look for Davidson's Brendan Winters to be a factor here as he put up 33 points against Chatanooga in the SWC tournament game. Look for Bucknell to lose but keep it close as they cover against THE Ohio State University. Three stars on Davidson.

***Bucknell +5 over Arkansas (12:30 Eastern)

It looks as though gamblers give little or no respect to Bucknell's basketball ability compared to all the other 9 seeds. I am positive Arkansas will not take them as lightly as most betters are. Bucknell was the first Patriot League team to ever be ranked in the top 25. They have plenty of experience as they returned the same 5 starters who upset Kansas in last year's tournament. This alone should get them respect, but hasn't. While this will be Pat Flannery's second visit to the big dance, it is the first time Stan Heath got Arkansas here. Arkansas likes to push the ball and get into high scoring games, they are not used to games that are left low scoring and that is exactly what they will see as they face the second ranked defense in the country from Bucknell who has allowed just 55.1ppg; Bucknell is also ranked fourth in scoring defense. Neither of these teams are wonderful from the free throw line and it can surely come down to such a situation in a close 8-9 seeded match up, but one place where there is a clear difference is in 3-point shooting. Not only is Arkansas worse from 3-point range, but they also struggle to defend shooters from that range. Arkansas tries to pressure the ball often and as long as Bucknell can avoid too many turnovers, this game will be entirely controlled by the Golden Eagles. I like Bucknell's chances of winning this game straight up, so the 5 points should offer a nice cushion. Three stars on Bucknell.

**Monmouth +20 over Villanova (2:50 Eastern)

Villanova is going deep this year - no doubt about it. I like them to meet up with UCONN in the Final Four. And, Monmouth comes into this at 19-14 from the lowly Northeast Conference. As such, no one is giving them any kind of shot here. But, that's precisely the reason I like the dog in this one - value. If Nova has a weakness it is their size (or lack thereof). Bucknell has a Shaq-type player in John Bunch (7'2" and 320 pounds) which could cause some unique problems for Nova in the middle. Monmouth has a very good defense that allowed just 57PPG to opponents down the stretch. Don't get me wrong. Villanova will cruise here but I like Monmouth to sneak under the 20 points. We'll back the huge dog with the good defense here for two stars.

***Pennsylvania +15 over Texas (9:40 Eastern)

Texas is just 6-10 ATS on the road this season folks. They scored over 10 points less per game away from home than at home as well while allowing over 7 per game more. That's huge. Penn comes in off a loss to Princeton as a six point favorite. That, combined with the lack of respect for the Ivy league, and Texas' notoriety this season and #2 seed, equals good value on the dog here in what's an inflated line. Ivy League player of the year Ibrahim Jaaber leads a pretty experienced Penn team here. Texas' road woes were most glaring against good teams this season as they were 0-6 ATS away from home vs. good teams that won by an average of 4+ points per game (Penn won by 9 per game this year). Again, a big dog here with a very good defense (Penn allowed 60 ppg). I like that combination. Three stars on Penn plus the points.

***Kentucky -3 over UAB (9:45 Eastern)

The winner of this game gets the dubious honor of losing to UCONN in next week's game. A lot ot play for, eh? Most 8-9 seeded teams will look into the weekend and see that they must face a top ranked team next, then worry about that match up before they take care of round one. While I am very confident it won't happen to tourney-test Tubby Smith and his Wildcats, there is an outside chance that Mike Anderson will let it happen. Kentucky has out-rebounded and out-shot their opponents this season; surely two keys to victory. That being said, UAB is quite a small team and have struggled getting rebounds all season (something Kentucky will take advantage of). Look for rebounds and turnovers to cause fast break opportunities for Kentucky and they do what they do best in the "big dance"...win.  The game won't get too out of hand though, as Kentucky will also play wonderful defense and give the outside shooters lots of trouble. In the end when you control the boards, fast break for easy baskets and get second or third looks at the basket, the scoreboard will show you with more points as the game ends. The Cats are 8-2 ATS this season vs. winning teams and I see them handling UAB here. Lay the points on Kentucky in this game for three stars.