darrell,

The Dance begins today. Six picks on Thursday. Good luck on your brackets and picks today!

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Good luck , darrell!

***Winthrop +7 over Tennessee (2:40 Eastern)

Who doesn't think the Tennessee seed is the worst of this year's bracket. Winthrop has won 17 of their last 19 and are peaking now. Can Winthrop hang with the best teams in the Nation? Consider that they only lost to Memphis (in Memphis) by 10 and to Alabama (in Alabama) by 3. This is their sixth trip to the Dance in eight years so don't view them as an inexperienced lightweight. They have the defense to give Tennessee problems here. Winthrop has held their last five opponents to just 57.6 PPG. Meanwhile, Tennessee allows a ridiculous 74 PPG - not the stuff of champions. Tennessee has lost three of four and four of their last six games both SU and ATS. The Vols are just 5-19 ATS in tournament play since 1997 and 9-21 ATS on nuetral courts. We're getting a lot of points here. Three stars on Winthrop.

**S Alabama +8 over Florida (2:45 Eastern)

S Alabama closed out the season with eight wins in their last nine games. They covered the spread in their last seven. Florida also finished strong, resulting in the large spread here. South Bama is 11-3 ATS on the road this year. They have played solid defense all year and their offense skyrocketed towards the end of the season as they peaked, averaging 84.2 PPG in their last five games. S Alabama was also 8-2 ATS late in the season this year s. winning teams. Two stars on S Alabama.

***Montana +6.5 over Nevada (3:00 Eastern)

As we see every year, at least one 12 seed upsets a 5 seed. This is one possible upset this year. Both of these teams have second year coaches and both of the coaches have made it to the NCAA tournament each of those years. Nevada shoots the ball pretty well and their quality shooters don't mind going to the free throw line. They have a star player in Nick Fazekas, who can be limited by Montana, but surely not stopped. Nevada's post player from last year (Pinkney) has been missed all year though as this is a poor rebounding team (about 35 per game). Montana is known for their tough defensive plays yet they also like to push the ball on offense (as seen when they scored 88 points vs. Stanford). Montana likes to make the extra pass and look for the open shot (they made 215 3-point shots this year). Their main weakness this season has come against great rebounding teams who get lots of second and third shots at the basket.  As luck would have it, Montana was able to draw a team whose major problem is rebounding. This will equate into quite an advantage for Montana and their shooters; it is another game where the underdog may win SU and why I like them getting 6.5 points. Did I mention Montana is 7-1 ATS this year as a dog? Three stars on Montanta.

***Belmont +18.5 over UCLA (4:55 Eastern)

Belmont makes their first NCAA appearance here. They are the unknown of the two "Bruins" here and earned this appearance by winning the Atlantic Sun. They've won 12 of their last 13 games. But, as expected, they are getting no respect here against the #2 seed in the Oakland bracket. UCLA has had a great season behing their awesome defense. But, I think this is simply too many points. High-seeded favorites entering the tourney coming off 2+ ATS wins are just 24-60 (29%) over the past ten years as the spread gets inflated on such teams. Belmont will certainly struggle but I expect a back-door cover at a minimum as UCLA struggles to cover the very large number. Three stars on Belmont.

**Southern +24.5 over Duke (9:30 Eastern)

Darling Duke lays a lot here. Too much in my opinion. Sure, Duke advances. But, do they win by three touchdowns and a field goal? I don't think so. Consider that Kryzewski and company are just 4-9 ATS in their last thirteen including 1-6 ATS to close out the season. As huge favorites of more than 21 points this season, they are just 2-4 ATS. Away from home they were 7-10 ATS. These numbers seemed to be ignored by the betting public who instead focuses on their 30-3 record and here, their #1 seed. Southern is fairly weak but they are peaking right now. While just 20-12 on the season overall, they finished very strong with six straight wins. Nine of those twelve losses came in their first 11 games. They closed out strong by playing great defense, holding four of those opponents under 60 points. Over the past three seasons, the Dukies are just 1-8 ATS as a neutral court favorite of greater than 12 points. Two stars on Southern to cover the big number.

***Utah State +6.5 over Washington (9:45 Eastern)

This is the other match up where I like the 12 seed over the 5 seed in this year's bracket. Utah St. shoots the fourth best percentage from the floor (almost 50% for the team) in the entire nation. That is a wonderful stat to have and it doesn't hurt that they shoot over 40% as a team from 3-point range  Washington will try to move the ball up and down the floor quickly, as they score over 80ppg, and Utah St. will try to keep this game lower scoring. The edge here goes to Utah St., and this game will stay lower scoring. A major reason for this is how many times Utah St. passes the ball, they look for a great shot and force the clock to run; they average over 17 assists per game and only turn the ball over about 13 times per game. The rebounding edge will go to Washington but they have a freshman running their point and he may have weak knees in this nationally televised game. Look for the freshman (J. Dentmon) to turn the ball over a few times more than usual and Utah St.'s senior point guard (D. Pak) to take advantage of this. Utah St. has a great chance to win this game straight up, so we surely like them getting 6.5 points. Three stars on Utah State.