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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
NCAA Basketball Premium Edition
March 4, 2006

darrell,

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3-2-1 last night giving us our seventh straight winning day in college baskets and 65% for the week. Six picks today.

Good luck , darrell!

The Wunderdog

 
Premium Picks

***Charlotte +9 over GEORGE WASHINGTON (2:00 Eastern)

25-1 is mighty impressive. So impressive in fact that the public can't help themselves but jump on George Washington here, inflating the line. We've seen this recently with Geo Washington going just 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games. Meanwhile, Charlotte remains underrated. They are 10-4 SU on the road and 11-3 ATS away from home! That includes a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road dog. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and have covered their last four on the road. They failed to cover the last two games which the pubic notices but both of those were as big favorites. Here they are a road dog - just as we like them. Go contrarian and back Charlotte plus the points in this one. Three stars on Charlotte.

***DePaul +8.5 over NOTRE DAME (4:00 Eastern)

This line is very interesting to look at since these two teams played each other earlier this year an the home team (DePaul) won by 6 even though they were 1 point underdogs. Now they travel to Notre Dame as large underdogs considering that they have already shown the country that they can handle the outside shooting of Notre Dame. DePaul has won their last two games SU and ATS as well as winning 4 of their last 6 away games. On the other hand, Notre Dame has gone 3-4 SU their last 7 home games and has lost their last 2 home games ATS. This number is much too large for such quality basketball programs who will be in a close battle until the final buzzer.  ake the points here on DePaul for three stars.

**SOUTHERN MISS -2 over E Carolina (5:00 Eastern)

Neither of these teams have had wonderful seasons as they each just have 8 wins on the year. This looks to be a low scoring game with neither team having much to play for with the exception of Southern Miss wanting to bring their home fans and seniors another win on this year.  outhern Miss has covered their last 2 games ATS and have gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 played. On the flip side, when you look at ECU, you'll see that they have just one win ATS in their last 7 played. It looks as thought ECU has thrown in the towel on their 2005-2006 season and there is very little that will be able to motivate them to play hard in todays game. As any athlete will tell you, motivation is a large part of winning and even more importantly when you must travel and play on another teams home court. Look for ECU to be out played in this match up as S. Miss wins number 9 in front of their home fans; take S. Miss -2 for two stars.

***Washington +1.5 over ARIZONA (6:00 Eastern)

Here we have a top ranked 23-5 team traveling to Arizona to play the Wildcats who have gone just 4-9 ATS at home this year. The Wildcats also have a few injuries to note, they have lost McClellan for the season back in January and now may be without another guard today (Adams) as he is having shoulder troubles. Even if Adams does play, he clearly won't be playing at 100%. Washington will have the same roster that helped them win the last 4 in a row ATS and the last 7 in a row SU and maybe even more importantly, 2 in a row ATS and 3 in a row SU when playing away games. When you look at how these teams match up in away games vs home games, you'll see that Washington scores more points in away games than Arizona does at home. Washington also shoots better from 3-point range than Arizona does, shoots better FT% away than Arizona does at home and gets more rebounds as well. Washington needs the win here more than Arizona and will show they deserve to be a top ranked team. Look for Washington to come out scoring often and Arizona struggle to match them shot-for-shot as Washington likely wins this game straight up. Three stars on the Huskies plus the points.

***DARTMOUTH -1 over Cornell (7:00 Eastern)

These two teams have played a few times in the past couple of years and the home team has won each of the last 4 times. That being said, it should be noted that the line moved from 'even' to Dartmouth -1. This shows that there has been lots of action on Dartmouth, this has a lot to do with the frequency of home wins in this match up. Dartmouth is also coming into this game winning their last 5 ATS in a row, while Cornell has covered just 2 of their last 6 games and gone 2-4 SU in those 6. Look for Dartmouth to continue covering the line as they play in front of their home crowd and take this win from a struggling Cornell team. Three stars on Dartmouth.

**CENTRAL FLORIDA +3.5 over UTEP (7:30 Eastern)

These two teams have not faced each other in recent history and it will be quite an interesting game to watch. These two teams have slightly different styles of play, as UTEP enjoys lower scoring basketball games with fewer shots and in more of a half-court type game, while Central Florida does not mind pushing the ball up the court and playing more of a fast paced transition type basketball game. It is more likely that the home team will be able to dictate the pace of play and there is no reason C. Florida can't do that here today. In the last 5 games played by each of these two teams, C. Florida has scored 8ppg more than UTEP. This may be because C. Florida has had more rebounds per game and also shot 36% from 3-point range compared to the horrible 29% UTEP has shot. Central Florida has also covered 3 of their last 4 home games. Take the points and watch the home team go 4-1 ATS in their most recent 5. Two stars on Central Florida.

Resources

College Basketball Resources

  Up-to-Date NCAA Basketball ATS Records
  College Basketball Game-of-the-Day Preview
  Live NCAA Basketball Lines

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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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