NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
March 3, 2006 |
|
darrell,
Tell A Friend about this newsletter!
3-1 last night and now hitting 67% over the last eighteen picks and 61% over the last five weeks. Six picks tonight.
Good luck , darrell!

|
|
| |
***College of Charleston -6.5 over UT-Chattanooga (2:30 Eastern)
This Southern Conference Quarterfinals game features a UT-Chatanooga squad that is just 4-9 ATS on the road vs. College of Charleston (10-2 ATS on the road). Charleston is 8-2 ATS this year, as well, against winning teams. These two teams met earlier this year with Charleston coming out ahead 67-53. Charleston has done better against commmon opponents this season and matches up nicely here. College of Charleston here for three stars.
***Elon -3 over UNC Greensboro (6:00 Eastern)
These teams are pretty evenly matched although Elon has the edge in most statistical categories. Greensboro is just 8-10 ATS on the road this year while Elon is .500. Elon beat UNC Greensboro by 5 points at Greensboro earlier this year and won at home by 6 as well. Those were two very different games. In the first, it was all about defense and in the second, offense. Elon showed they can win either type of game and that they have UNC's number. I like them laying the small number here. Elon for three stars.
***Towson State -2 over Georgia State (6:00 Eastern)
In the two earlier matchups between these clubs, Towson won both. One by a point on the road and one by 4 points at home. Against common opponents this season, Towson is 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS while Georgia State is 3-14 SU and 7-10 ATS. Clearly, Towson is the better team. That is backed up by Towson's road record (8-3 ATS) vs. Georgia State's (6-7). One reason Towson matches up well here is Geogia State's poor defense. They are allowing opponents to hit 46% from the field. Towson State is 8-1 ATS over the past three seasons vs. teams that allow 45%+. In this near pick 'em game, take the better team. Three stars on Towson State.
**DARTMOUTH -3.5 over Columbia (7:00 Eastern)
Definitely the Clash of the Titans here as these 2 teams well above the 250 PR rankings face off in an Ivy League Matchup. Columbia, keep in mind, had won 3 in a row at home including beating Penn, Princeton and Brown before losing to Yale. Thus, this team had a successfull run but they are still 4-8 in the Conference while Dartmouth who is dead last in the conference is 3-9. Columbia is next to last in the conferece while Dartmouth is dead last in the conference. The last time these teams met, Dartmouth upset Columbia and won by 10 on the road. Keep in mind that Columbia has won just one game on the road this year and that was against Cornell, a game that Cornell came back to destroy them in.
While last in the Ivy, Dartmouth did beat Yale and Brown at home who are 3rd and 5th in the Ivy. Furthermore, this team played Princeton tough both at home as well as on the road as Princeton is 2nd in the Ivy only to Penn. This team has come on of late as so has Columbia. But the key is that Columbia comes on at home, while this team comes on the road as well as they beat Columbia by 10 earlier this year. Columbia has struggled on the road all year with just 1 road win in conference. Dartmouth, although dead last in the league has been playing much better at home. Sure, Columbia has a revenge angle, but this team is not playing a game where they lost on the road and then come back to win at home like they did against Brown, Princeton or Penn - Columbia lost to this team at home and now play them on the road. Long story short, both teams are playing well but I think Dartmouth gets the slight edge here considering they are at home and how well they have played at home as well as the fact that Columbia has one just one game SU on the road this year in conference. Two stars on Dartmouth.
***Cornell +6.5 over HARVARD (7:00 Eastern)
Cornell is a much better team than people realize in the Ivy. This team is 4th in the conference and .500 as well in the conference - which is not that bad considering the upsets that have happened. They did lose to Brown at home, which is a bit concerning but Brown is 5th in the conference and had a revenge game as they lost one at home, so it's understandable. Cornell did lose 3 in a row after beating Brown, but those games were to Yale, Princeton and Penn, which were all tops in the Ivy. Keep in mind when playing bottom ranked teams in the Ivy this team has been solid including beating Columbia on the road, a rising Dartmouth team at home and Harvard at home as well. Harvard is on a fast decline. They have now lost their last 7 in a row including losing to Brown - 5th in the Ivy by 13 at home, losing to Yale by 11
- a team that Cornell beat at home, losing to Penn - which is understandable in DD and losing to Princeton in a tight one as well. The last time these two teams hooked up, Cornell got the edge by 2 at home and Harvard looks for the revenge game here. However, Harvard has been spirling down and Cornell has been playing better. I remember when the standings in this conference was on opposite spectrums when Harvard was on top and Cornell was on bottom. Through the course of the season, this has shifted and I think the trend continues here as I beleive the points are valuable in this matchup and I think Cornell has a solid shot of winning this outright. Harvard will play tough I beleive, but their play of late losing 4 in a row at home, shows that it's quite possible that even worse teams than Cornell have won, so I wouldn't be shocked if Cornell wins this outright. Three stars on Cornell plus the points.
**Princeton/BROWN OVER 106.5 (7:00 Eastern)
The total here is set remarkably low at 106.5 - kind of like a Temple/Richmond game - yes, it went over by a point! When these teams hooked up last time, the point total did not rise above 90. Princeton has the capacity to put up usually in the low 60's game in and game out and Brown has ability to put up in the low mid 50's to low 60's at home as I don't see them putting up below 40 again as they are now at home. In fact, the last 9 out of 10 years the total has gone well over this mark. The reason why this year it is presented so low is people simply look at the previous games score. I'll go with history and beleive that both teams hit the 55 mark and this game goes over.
I beleive the total is a better play than the side as Brown could upset Princeton at home on revenge as they did to Yale. Two stars on the OVER here.
|
|
| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
Tell a Friend
Please Tell A Friend about
the newsletter because they will thank you for it!
|
Are
you getting exactly the newsletters you want?
Choose
from NFL, College Football, NCAA Basketball, NBA, MLB, NHL, Horse
Racing & Poker
To
stop receiving this or add yourself to other sports picks
or poker newsletters, change your email preferences or view your account/order history, go to your Subscription Management Page here. |
The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk. Subscription
to this newsletter is predicated on acceptance of Wunderdog
Sports Picks website terms.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
NCAA picks from freeunderdog.com
877.DOG.WINS
P.O. Box 45
Golden,
CO 80402 |
 |