darrell,

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3-2 last night. Four picks tonight.

Good luck , darrell!

**Fresno State +11 over UTAH STATE (9:00 Eastern)

Fresno State is still a top 130 team that is 15-11 on the year. They beat Boise State recently by 2 and played Creighton very close and lost by just 5. Yes, this team did lose to Idaho on the road, but then came back to defeat Hawaii in a revenge game. Also, they took it to the wire against Iona and beat Utah State. This team has gotten blown out before on the road including losing by DD at Buffalo and losing badly to Louisiana Tech and Pacific. Yet, the recent history is what is important here. We have a revenge factor here for Utah State but for the given spread as it is now - it is inflated. These two teams hooked up at Fresno State and Utah State in fact lost to this team by 3 on the road. Don't get me wrong, I beleive that Utah State wins this game by the revenge factor as they are the better team, but laying 11 points to a team that previously defeated you is a lot. This team is traditionally just 5-5 against such teams overall and 3-1 at home against them - although they are also 4-0 against teams in the 50-100 range as well. They just barely beat Northwestern State by 3 at home, got beaten by Boise State a top 150 team essentially by 2 on the road, and got pounded by Nevada by 18 at home. Yes, they should bounce back today, but the points are simply too much here. Two stars on Fresno State.

***San Jose State +18 over NEVADA (10:00 Eastern)

It is true that San Jose State has only won 6 games this year. Yet, what we care about is a team covering and this team has been doing just that. They recently lost to Hawaii by just 1, lost to Fresno State at home by 7, lost to New Mexico State by 6 on the road, lost ot UC Santa Barb by 4 at hme, lost to Louisiana Tech by 11 on the road, and had lost to Nevada earlier this year by 7. The total for this game is 136 and for us to get 17.5 points on that kind of total is something that we have to take serously as that is lot of points for a team playing well and should lose - but not lose by nearly 20 points. The reason this line is so high is primarily due to Nevada putting a whalloping on Utah State on the road. However, this San Jose State team has revenge on their mind as they lost a close and low scoring game at home and I think Nevada will be looking past this game a bit more on cruise control. I expect San Jose State to keep it relateively cloes and bring this one in.

***UC-Riverside +14 over LONG BEACH STATE (10:00 Eastern)

The public sees a team that is 2-11 on the road visiting a team that is 8-4 at home. Thus 14 points. But, I see a 5-6 ATS road team going to a 4-5 ATS home team. The recent performance looks the same. Over the past five games, LBS is 4-1 SU while UC-Riverside is 1-4 SU. But, ATS, LBS is 2-2 while Riverside is 3-2! See a pattern here? Fourteen points is just too much. And, it gets better when you consider that LBS has the worse defense here. They are allowing 80 ppg on the year and 82.4 per game over their last five. Riverside allows 79 per game on the year and they've cut that to 71.8 per game over their last five. LBS relies on their offense. Sure, LBS wins this one but by less than 14 points. Three stars on UC-Riverside.

**New Mexico State +8 over HAWAII (11:59 Eastern)

New Mexico State is dogged by 8 points on the road in Hawaii. This is a top 120 team that is 14-12 this year and has a PR of 106 on the road as they play better on the road as compared to home. They have won their last 6 in a row, including games against Pacific on the road who is a top 100 team, beat Utah State on the road - another top 100 team and their lass loss against Fresno State by 3 points. This team has been in every game they have played in since the beginning of the season and have yet to get blown out on any game unless by late free throw but they have been in every single game. These 2 teams matched up last time and NM State won by 3 at home. Hawaii gets the chance to get some revenge here but keep in mind this team only beat Sant Clara by 10 at home who is a top 170 team. Now they face a much hotter New Mexico State team and coveing 8 I beleive is going to be tough here. Two stars on NM State.