NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
February 23, 2006 |
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darrell,
3-2 last night and 8-4 on a star basis as the big four star came through for us. Three picks tonight.
Good luck , darrell!

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**Northeastern -2.5 over DELAWARE (7:30 Eastern)
Two powerhouses take the floor in this one. One team is 15-10 while the other is 8-18. Yet, we need to lay just 2.5 points on the much better team here. Not convinced Northeastern is much better? Consider that against common opponents this season, NE is 11-5 SU and 9-4 ATS while Delaware is 5-12 SU and 8-8 ATS. Delaware is scoring just 58 ppg over their last give games and they are just 4-12 SU in-conference. Small spread here. Take the better team laying the small number for two stars.
**MOREHEAD STATE +6.5 over Tennessee State (9:00 Eastern)
Another battle of champions here pittting 11-14 Tennessee State against 4-21 Morehead State. Am I really suggesting backing a 4-21 team here? Yeah. Versus common opponents this year Tennessee State is 8-9 SU while Morehead State is just 3-14. But, that's not the important thing here. If we look against the spread (what we care about), Tennessee State is just 7-10 ATS while Morehead is 11-6 ATS! And tonight we get a healthy +6.5 points on the home team. And the "home" here is very important. Consider that Morehead has only lost one game in the last eight tries here - and that's straight up! Tennessee State is 3-10 SU in road games this year. Morehead is 5-3 ATS at home where they score a lot more than they do on the road. Two stars on Morehead State plus the points.
**Oregon State +15.5 over UCLA (10:30 Eastern)
UCLA dissappointed us the other night against USC. I watched that game and felt that UCLA showed little heart or fight. It's teams playing that way that I like to fade as big favorites. Earlier this year, Oregons State kept the score within nine at home. I think they can keep it within 15 in this one. While their 13-3 home record is commendable, the Bruins are just 6-6 ATS at home. They have fallen into a slump losing their last two games straight up and while they'll be looking to improve their play here, they won't be taking OSU seriously as they have dropped 7 of their last 8 games. Perfect time to back the unlikely dog here. OSU plus the points for two stars.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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