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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
NCAA Basketball Premium Edition
February 22, 2006

darrell,

Five picks tonight...

Good luck , darrell!

The Wunderdog

 
Premium Picks

**Richmond/TEMPLE OVER 106 (7:00 Eastern)

The total here opened at 105 and has risen quickly for good reason. Temple is simply a home squad and the total here is highly suprising considering the fact that this team at home put up 76 against Duquesne, 91 against Maryland, and 80+ against Xavier. Temple comes off a loss and at home they simply put up points. I expect Richmond to get beat fairly badly, possibly by 15-20 but laying that many points is tough on any team let alone Temple. However, I beleive Temple does score in the 70's possibly and Richmond to put up around 50 for a total of 120 rather than 107. Besides, the past 3 years the totals have been 112, 111 and 113. Given that Temple comes off a loss, they love to and can score points like they did against Duquesne, Maryland and Xavier and given that Richmond should put up around 50, I expect this to go well over. Two stars on the OVER here.

****Charlotte +1.5 over UMASS (7:00 Eastern)

Charlotte is not a team to take easy by any means as they are 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS on the road with wins at St. Joseph's, Dayton and Rutgers. UMass is just 3-5 ATS at home. Charlotte comes off winning their last 5 of 6 as the only game they've lost in that stretch was a tight game at Wake. Now, they are getting points on the road against Umass. Umass is not the quite top 80 team like Charlotte is and given Charlotte's strength of schedule as they have proved they can win tough road games time and time again. Against common opponents this year, Charlotte is 7-1 while Massachusettes is just 5-6. This also has the look of a potential letdown game for UMass. We'll take the more rested and more talented squad in Charlotte for four stars.

**Tennessee/FLORIDA UNDER 159.5 (8:00 Eastern)

What do you say to a total this high in college basketball? You almost want to take the under simply because it is hard to beleive that each team puts up 80 points. However, given the fact that 156 was scored on the road at Tennessee and Florida uptting up some points, the total could very well rise here as Florida could light it up. However, I beleive Tennessee will focus on defense today and they won't let another game happen like the one in Bama and this becomes a game in mid 70's for both teams and the game goes under. How often do you get a line of 159.5 as any dry spell, any defensive stand can help the under here. I beleive this is a good opportunity to take and will take it for two stars.

**MICHIGAN STATE -4.5 over Ohio State (8:00 Eastern)

This Ohio State team matched up to Michigan State and lost by 3. Michigan State might be the toughest place to play ball in the Big Ten, even more than Illinois, and OSU has a tough task ahead of them if they though playing Wisconsin tough. I think the value here with Michigan State at home is solid considering the record MSU has posted on the home court. Keep in mind OSU is a top 10 team in PR rankings yet they are 1-3 on the road against top 50 teams as their big wins come at home. Michigan State is a perfect 13-0 at home including 3-0 against top 50 teams at home. At home this team has won by at least 8 points in every home game and every conference game after that GT scare at home they had earlier this year. I expect much the same as OSU goes down here to MSU despite the points as it hasn't made a difference before and I don't it makes a difference now. Keep in mind this team has handed their ass to teams such as Michigan, Iowa and Indiana and I expect them to do the same here. Two stars on the Spartans.

**UTEP +15.5 over MEMPHIS (10:00 Eastern)

This line is a perfect example of how Vegas caps the public and not the actual game.  Since the public does not know about UTEP very much, the line is at an incredible 15.5 points. This is a 17-6 team ranked in the top 85 in power rankings that is getting no respect. This team is 5-4 on the road and have won their last 10/11. Remember the UAB game where they demolished them by 28? When facing tough competition this year, they lost to Gtown early in the year by 12, beat Pacific, lost to TT by 1, and Syracuse by 13. But the point is, is that this team knows how to win, because they've done it against fairly decent teams and are still a top 90 team and as we know, Memphis is an incredible public team and at +15 it seems as if its quality value. UTEP has everything to gain just like they did at the UAB game and just like they do here. Sure, they'll probably lose, but by 15 is a stretch. Sure this team is 24-2 and all we see is a win after win, when we look at their schedule, but we're not too interested in their moneyline quality here. When Memphis played UAB they only beat them by 7 at home and they did beat a solid Lousiana Tech team by 18. UTEP should be up for this game and Memphis might be on cruise control and might get a bit suprised early in this game. Two stars on the Miners.

Resources

College Basketball Resources

  Up-to-Date NCAA Basketball ATS Records
  College Basketball Game-of-the-Day Preview
  Live NCAA Basketball Lines

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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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