NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
February 18, 2006 |
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darrell,
Seven picks today and my thoughts on the best conference in College Basketball...
Good luck , darrell!

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The Big East: Best Conference in the Country
When did the Big East become so good in College basketball? Remember the daus when the ACC ruled in college ball? With Maryland, Duke and Georgia Tech dominating the game, it seemed that these teams would be the consistent favorites and that the ACC would have a strong hold as the best conference in all of college basketball? However, in my opinion, there has been a changing of guard. The Big East is for real my friends.
With 16 total teams in the picture, this conference is simply packed with talent and potential and ready to make a mark in all of college basketball. With some shuffling this year with new teams joining due to college football dictating the shifting, it seems the changes have affected NCAAB more as the east has now become the best conference in college basketball. Let’s examine this conference and the teams involved...
TEAM |
W |
L |
PCT |
CONF |
GB |
HOME |
AWAY |
Villanova #4 |
20 |
2 |
.909 |
10-1 |
- |
9-1 |
8-1 |
Connecticut #1 |
22 |
2 |
.917 |
9-2 |
1.0 |
13-0 |
6-1 |
West Virginia #11 |
18 |
6 |
.750 |
9-2 |
1.0 |
11-2 |
5-2 |
Pittsburgh #9 |
20 |
3 |
.870 |
9-3 |
1.5 |
15-0 |
5-3 |
Georgetown #17 |
17 |
6 |
.739 |
8-4 |
2.5 |
9-2 |
7-4 |
Seton Hall |
16 |
7 |
.696 |
7-4 |
3.0 |
12-3 |
4-4 |
Marquette |
17 |
8 |
.680 |
7-5 |
3.5 |
12-2 |
2-6 |
Cincinnati |
17 |
9 |
.654 |
6-6 |
4.5 |
12-3 |
3-6 |
Syracuse |
17 |
8 |
.680 |
5-6 |
5.0 |
12-4 |
3-3 |
Louisville |
16 |
8 |
.667 |
4-7 |
6.0 |
14-3 |
1-5 |
Providence |
11 |
11 |
.500 |
4-7 |
6.0 |
8-6 |
3-5 |
Rutgers |
14 |
11 |
.560 |
4-8 |
6.5 |
11-5 |
2-5 |
St. John's |
11 |
12 |
.478 |
4-8 |
6.5 |
8-5 |
2-7 |
Notre Dame |
12 |
10 |
.545 |
3-8 |
7.0 |
10-4 |
2-5 |
DePaul |
9 |
13 |
.409 |
2-9 |
8.0 |
5-7 |
3-6 |
South Florida |
6 |
18 |
.250 |
0-11 |
10.0 |
3-8 |
1-7 |
Dominating the Top 25
As you can see, the Big East is packed with top 25 teams including two top 10's and a total of five top 25 teams. In essence, 1/5 of the Top 25 teams in the country are from the Big East and they range from #1 to #17. This doesn’t even include the two teams that dropped out of the top 25 in Syracuse and Louisville. Can you imagine that 13 out of the 16 teams are at .500 or higher?! If these teams didn’t have to play each other throughout the conference schedules, their records would even be higher! For example, Louisville used to be ranked in the top 25 but after their conference schedule started and their record of 4-7 during such play, they might not even go to the NCAAB tournament due to the difficulties they’ve had in their own conference. The same can apply to Syracuse who is at sub .500 in conference play at 5-6. Furthermore, when one team Big East team travels on the road to another team, they do not have an easy win awaiting them as in other conferences. For example, Rutgers played Villanova very tough and St. Johns defeated undefeated Pitt at home – this goes without saying that Marquette beat the undefeated Huskies at home as well. Of course, we can’t forget that Georgetown also defeated undefeated #1 Duke on the road as well. Thus, imagine this: The last three undefeated teams in college basketball have all been defeated by Big East teams with two of them being ranked #1 at the time (Duke and UCONN). Granted that UCONN and Duke still remain on top, it is clear that no one is safe in this conference - at home or away.
Solid, Even at the Bottom
Another element that shows the strength of schedule of this conference is when you take a look at the two teams near the bottom. After all, the strength of your organization or group is how strong the weakest links are. However, just take a look at at the bottom rung of teams including South Florida (a team who played Villanova to within 3 points and lost), Depaul, Notre Dame, St. Johns, Rutgers, Providence and the once soaring Louisville Cardinals. Any one of these teams on any given day could beat one of the top 25 teams in the country – and even more likely at home. In fact, least 11 out of 16 of these teams deserve NCAA bids but I believe around 6-8 will get them with an outside shot at double digits. How can you deny teams that win on a consistent basis in their non-conference schedules and play their conferences opponents tough. In fact, if one is to go even .500 in their conference schedules, the team deserves to go to the NCAA tournament as you would have beat nearly 4 to 5 top 25 teams or once ranked in the top 25 which is a great year for any given team.
Gimme the Big East Any Day
Big East teams have shown the true caliber of college basketball teams and are winning consistently on the road as well. The Big East is simply where the big boys come to play. With their size, speed, and suffocating defense as shown by undefeated Seton Hall demolishing #14 ranked NC State at that time on the road and West Virginia snapping UCLA’s win streak at home, the Big East can matchup to anyone in non-conference play. The Big East team’s will be looking to feast on other competition besides themselves, and come tourney time, this is a conference that I will be riding whenever possible.
Disagree? Show me another conference that can matchups to these numbers and these accomplishments in-conference as well as non-conference. Big East basketball is here to stay and the guard has been changed for the best conference in basketball for some time to come.
All of you ACC alums are gonna barage me with emails I know. That's fine, let me know what you think! |
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**LaSALLE -4 over Dayton (2:00 Eastern)
LaSalle is a very good team that not a lot people talk about. This team went on the road to Xavier and beat them outright. They have now won their last 6 after losing their previous 5 and have been on a roll. They lay Dayton at home tonight, and for this team home court means everything where they are 8-3. Given the win against Xavier and how well they played on the road at Umass winning by 21, I believe they get it done here at home against Dayton.
Dayton comes off a big home win against St. Louis and this could be a slight-let down game here. This team went on the road to Xavier and lost by 5 where as La Salle won the game SU. Furthermore, Dayton’s away record is an appaling 1-7 where they simply struggle. I expect this game to be similar to the Charlotte game they played who has a slightly worse power ranking to La Salle on 2/4 and La Salle to win by 10-12 points. Two stars on LaSalle.
***CANISIUS -4 over Youngstown St. (2:00 Eastern)
I am excited about this matchup. Youngstown State has beaten the spread long enough and I think Vegas has caught on. Backing Canisius is never the easiest thing to do, but this Youngstown State squad I believe has packed it in I believe and the Golden Griffins come out on top. The Golden Griffins come off a huge win at home against Manhattan and barely lost to Marist by 3 recently.
I like the fact that they did lose this game simply because it won’t be the let down that Manhattan was and this game is an ideal spot for them to bounce back against a struggling Youngstown State team that is just 2-11 on the road.
Both these teams are horrible, but the fact that Canisius has the potential to knock off Manhattan at home speaks volumes and I’ll take the Griffins given that Youngstown State is no Manhattan. Three stars on Canisius.
**Tennessee +1 over ALABAMA (4:00 Eastern)
This is a huge rivalry game and one of the biggest games in SEC basketball.
However, when it comes down to it, Tennessee is just far too talented. This team beat undefeated Florida on their home court, they took care of business and destroyed Georgia on the road and have shown they can tough SEC games including at Kentucky. This is a top 10 team on the road and I believe, they get it done here considering Bama’ is still without Chuck Davis and Tennessee pulls out a close out based on talent and solid prior performance throughout the year. Two stars on the Volunteers in this one.
**CALIFORNIA -12 vs. Arizona State (8:00 Eastern)
When these two teams played about a month ago, Arizona St was the home team, a 2 point underdog and California won by 30 points! If they are getting it done on the road, There is no reason why they can't cover 12 points today at home. Arizona St is just 3-5 ATS when playing away games this year and have lost their last two SU and ATS. California on the other hand has won 7 of their last 8 at home SU, covered 6 of those 8 ATS and is 9-3 at home ATS this year. In away games Arizona St. is scoring less than 60ppg and giving up over 70ppg. When you face a team like California who is scoring 75ppg at home and giving up just 65ppg this game has all the makings of yet another blowout. Look for California to score quickly and often and have no problem letting their bench players see some garbage time at the end of this blow out. Take California giving 12 points at home for two stars.
**Cal Poly-SLO +15 vs. ST. MARYS (8:30 Eastern)
Cal Pol-SLO come off a horrible loss to UC Santa Barbara and I don't see them doing it again. This is a team thta beat UC Irvine on the road and they have the potential to play well. This is a bit of a bounce back game for them as they face St. Mary's CA who will be without their best player due to off the court issues today. Thus, I think St. Mary's will come out a little flat due to their primary scorer out temporarily and on the bounce back for Cal-Poly Slo this bodes to be a good game where the points are valuable here. St. Mary's comes off 2 wins back to back and have not posted 3 wins in a row since middle of December. Don't get wrong, I beleive they win this game, but I think Cal-Poly will keep it close and we'll back them for two stars.
**UTAH -1 over Air Force (9:00 Eastern)
Utah comes off a big let down game against Colorado State University – a game they should have won at home. Now this team faces Air Force in a huge conference game and the game is nearly a pick’em given Air Force’s record earlier in the year when they accumulated due to home court advantage. Now, however, the advantage falls to Utah on the bounce back with their home court advantage. Air Force is just .500 this year on the road and the atmosphere for the Utes should be incredibly encouraging seeing that they lost the CSU game as well and I look for them to have a solid bounce back against an underachieving Air Force team on the road. Two stars on Utah.
**Northwestern State +10.5 over UTAH STATE (10:00 Eastern)
Northwestern State I believe is incredibly undervalued in this game. This team is 18-6 on the year and for good reason. They returned their top five scorers from last year. They have won 11 of their last 12 games overall and you want to talk about a team that is comfortable playing on the road. They have gone into Missouri, Mississippi State, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Hawaii and Texas A&M. OH, I forgot about neutral floor battles with Iowa State and Oregon State. Now, with the mention of those 8 teams above, they went 5-4 SU but a very impressive 6-2 ATS. Trust me people, this team is rock solid.
Utah State should not be laying this type of number to these guys. Sure, they come off the 38 point win over Idaho, but they did get beat by New Mexico State at home in the game before that as a 13 1/2 point favorite. Northwestern State will be in this game the whole way and it would not surprise me to see them win the game. Let’s go ahead and grab this very live dog tonight for two stars.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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