NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
February 17, 2006 |
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darrell,
From 5-1 on Wednesday down to 1-2 last night. Sorry 'bout the roller coaster. Really thought we had the 'Canes last night with them getting 8 and leading at the half by six. But, BC came out and shot 61% and hit six three pointers in the second half to win by 9. Four picks tonight.
Good luck , darrell!

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**Yale/DARTMOUTH UNDER 131 (7:00 Eastern)
The last time these 2 teams hooked up this year the total was 127 and now it has risen to 131. I believe a solid bet is on the under in this game. Yale struggles badly on the road to score points like the games with Princeton (115), Upenn (126), Brown (129). I believe Yale puts up in the mid to high 60’s and Dartmouth does the same with low to mid 50’s like they did with Princeton and Columbia at home where they put up 49 and 51.
We'll take the solid bet here on what should be a defensive game where the temas are familiar with each other's srtengths and should hone down on their weaknesses. Two stars on the UNDER.
**Pennsylvania -14.5 over COLUMBIA (7:00 Eastern)
Columbia is struggling having lost 5 straight now (4-7 ATS) including home games to Dartmouth, the Ivy’s worst team by double digits. They also record losses at home against Harvard and Cornell, teams which Penn handled easily including Cornell at Penn in which they defeated them by 40 points. This team has lost in double digits at home to teams that Penn has defeated others by nearly or over 20 points. I expect a similar game to the one in Harvard in which Penn won in double digits whereas this game they should win by 16-20 points. Penn is simply a covering machine and keep in mind this: Columbia got blown out by Cornell – who is not as good as Penn although one of the best playing teams in the Ivy right now next to Penn – by over 20 points. Penn could do much the same if not better. I beleive Penn is not even an Ivy League type team and should be in the Big East with the big boys considering how well they played St. Joseph's, La Salle (who beat Xavier outright on the road). Two stars on Penn.
***High Point/LOYOLA-MD UNDER 158 (7:00 Eastern)
This total very, very high. Using UMBC and Americana as benchmarks the totals were 135 and 128. Given the fact that these 2 teams have no history of playing each other which will lead to tentativeness and reduced scoring the first part of the half, given that Loyola MD has struggled lately, and that High Point traditionally puts up mid 60's to low 70's max on the road, I don't see either team eclipsing 80. Even if Loyola MD does get 80, like they have done the last 3 home against teams they knew, it is hard for me to beleive that High Point will put up 78 in return. I see this game being a mid 70 to a high 60 type game and the game going well under. The lines for the Metro games have been inflated all year, and I think is no different this Friday evening. Three stars on UNDER here.
**Providence +9.5 over CINCINNATI (8:00 Eastern)
The Big East is the best conference in college basketball hands down in my opinion. Both Providence and Cincinnati are top 70 teams and their records don’t show how competitive they are considering they are on a conference where at one point 7 teams were ranked in the top 25. Providence comes off a big win on the road at under-achieving DePaul and are placed as nearly double digit dogs in Cincinnati. Consider that this team went on the road to beat Rutgers as well. Frankly, even though Cincy beat Louisville at home, Cincinnati is not an elite team I believe and I think that Providence keeps it close throughout this game. Another personal note is that I think the line is inflated considering that Cincy comes of the Louisville win. I believe Providence is a live dog and keeps it close as Cincy as they did at Georgetown during the mid portion of the season and Cincy is no Georgetown as evidenced by their near 20 point loss there. Two stars on the dog here on which you can probably get double digits by game time.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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