NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
February 15, 2006 |
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darrell,
Six picks tonight on the big board.
Good luck , darrell!

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**Kent State +1 over BUFFALO (7:00 Eastern)
Kent State is simply a better team than Buffalo. Kent has won
their last 11 of 13 while Buffalo had lost 4 in a row before beating Mac rag doll
Central Michigan. Long story short, Kent State went on the road to beat MAC
conference top teams in Ohio and Miami (OH) on the road by 7 points each. Now
they play Buffalo who couldn't beat either teams at home. Buffalo had lost to
Kent by nearly 20 points on the road earlier this season. Although this could
be a revenge game for Buffalo, I beleive not as Kent is simply far too
talented and is plyaing such great basketball now to not take them here as the
outright winner. Kent has faced tougher teams in this conference and garnered
the home win, and I see them doing it again with their gritty and talented
play. Two stars on Kent.
**MIAMI OHIO -4.5 over Ohio U (7:00 Eastern)
This is a rivalry game between the 3rd and 4th best teams in the MAC. The first obvious note is that these 2 teams hooked up a couple of weeks ago and Miami Ohio went on the road to win at Ohio by 14. Now, they are favored by 5 at home. Common sense tells us that Miami Ohio coming back home would cover this spread with fair ease. Ohio has still not beaten a top 100 team on the road. Yes, sure the revenge factor is there, but this team is simply not playing well of late. They come off a loss to a top 160 team on the road to Western Michigan and also lost on the road to Buffalo a top 120 team by nearly 20 points. This team did defeat Toledo on the road who is a top 140 team essentially, but then has lost to Northern Illinois a top 125 team and recently lost the game to W.Michigan. This is not the greateast of road teams and asking them to beat a top 90 team on the road, something they have not done all year and something they have had trouble doing against teams much less difficult, I beleive is a lot to ask of Ohio. Miami (OH) has been playing solid of late. After losing 3 in a row, they have reeled off 4 straight wins including that road victory at Ohio. They also defeated Buffalo on the road, a feat that Ohio could not do. Let's take the home team tonight who will continue what the started at their rival's home court. Two stars on Miami Ohio.
**Georgia Tech +12 over NORTH CAROLINA (7:00 Eastern)
Georgia Tech is simply a giant killer and is is one of the best dogs in
college basketball. After only losing by 1 to FSU on the road, this team came
back at home to beat NC State. With a young squad that relentlessly hustles
and plays defense, they should be ready to be the spoiler on the road at UNC.
Simply put, UNC is a very young squad and simply cannot blow out talented
teams even at home. Georgia Tech has lost their last 3 games by a total of 4
points before winning against NC State. Those 3 losses were on the road at FSU, Boston College and Virginia Tech - 3 games in which they covered all as
dogs. They should do much the same with more than a double digit cushion. Two stars on Ga Tech.
**S. Florida +13 over NOTRE DAME (7:30 Eastern)
S Florida can be dubbed as the greatest scare to ranked teams out there. They are always close against some of the top teams in their conference, the toughest conferece in college basketball in the Bit East - yet, they never win. But for bettors, they are the new gold mine. Yes, this team has lost their 12th straight (I know what you're saying "what are you
thinking?!") - but wait: This team lost to louisville by 3, Seton Hall by 5, Cincy by 7, Villanova by 3, Georgetown by 3, Syracuse by 6 and West Virginia by 4. I just gave you 8 top 25 teams whom they've played tough throughout. How can they do this so many times? Well it's due to the tempo style of game they play with long winded possessions and suffocating defense. They are a 13 point dog to Notre Dame tonight, who has lost to all of these teams in similar fashion. I expect the Irish to win but they'll have a tough time doing it in this game which will be a true grind. Let's take the golden points here in this game where they will tough to come by and watch the Bulls lose another close one - but bring home the bacon for us. Two stars on South Florida.
**Georgia +9 over KENTUCKY (8:00 Eastern)
Kentucky should not be favored by nearly double digits against any SEC teams.
This is one of the most overrated and biggest public teams in the nation.
Kentucky was favored over Tennessee, Alabama and Vanderbilt at home - all
games they lost straight up. They did beat Georgia earlier this year on the
road, but now Georgia gets another crack at them. Considering KY basketball is
one about possession and heavy defense, I beleive this game will come down to
each and every possession. Georgia with revenge on their mind should keep
this game close throughout. Furthermore, Kentucky simply does not have
quality depth as Crawford and Rohan are their only honest 3 ball threat as
thei rest of their is simply roll players after those 2. Georgia comes off a
bad loss to TN at home and I expect the coach to get them riled up for this
game on the road - a game in which they could win outright as 3 SEC teams have done before just this year. Two stars on Georgia.
****UTAH -6 over Colorado State (9:00 Eastern)
When we shake down the stats in this game, it is truly startling at the value we are getting here with this line. The break down shows this is a clash between a top 145 team in Colorodo State University versus a top 130 team in Utah. But this goes far beyond that. Here you have a huge revenge game for Utah at the exact same time where they are playing great ball and CSU is playing horrid ball. CSU has lost their last 7 games including by 15 to Air Force on the road, 13 on the road to the unbeleivably horrendous TCU, asnd 11 on the road to UNLV. Earlier this year these 2 teams met up and CSU won at home by 6. Now, this game is at Utah. Utah is 8-3 at home and 6-0 against teams with a Power Ranking of 100 or higher and considernig that CSU is in the top 150, it fits in well nicely with this statistic. Utah has won their last 4 of 5 including big wins at home against BYU by 19 - a team CSU lost to by 2 at home, a 2 point win at top 75 San Diego State - a team that CSU lost at home to by 4, an 8 point win at Wyoming - a team CSU lost by 7 to at home and a 35 point win against TCU - a team that CSU recently lost to by 13 on the road to. This game is not going to be close from the start as Utah releases some steam and blows CSU out. Four stars on the Utes.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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