NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
January 31, 2006 |
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darrell,
Now 12-4 over the last week after last night's wins. Two picks again tonight.
Good luck , darrell!

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***South Florida +13.5 over CINCINNATI (8:00 Eastern)
While this matchup may not look impressive as neither of these teams have done very well this year, one thing to look at is how they have each done ATS. Cincinnati is 3-7 at home ATS while S.Fl is 6-3 away. Since Cincy has lost their start Guard (A Kirkland) on 1/9 they have only had one win (vs Rutgers) and they have been 1-6 in their last 7 ATS. South FL has won their last 3 ATS and are 5-1 in their last 6 against the numbers. Simply put, in a lower scoring match up like this one, with neither team looking to have the "upper-hand" in this match up, 13.5 points is too hard to pass up. Take the points and South Florida here for three stars.
***Florida -5.5 over MISSISSIPPI (8:00 Eastern)
Let me paint you a picture: The home team here is 5-6-1 ATS overall and 13-6 on the season. They score almost 13ppg less than the visitors, they shoot a lower shot percentage, get less rebounds, are 0-3 their last three games SU, and are playing a team who is 18-2 on the year (9-5 ATS). When you look at a painting like this, the first thought that should come to your head is "blowout". Clearly that isn't what people are thinking here though. The home team (Mississippi) is only getting 5.5 points in this match up vs a Florida team who was undefeated on the season 10 days ago. Florida had a tough loss in Tennessee and then had a "let down" loss as they had to travel to S. Carolina. They are back on track after their dominating win at home vs Vanderbilt and they will keep dominating as they travel to Mississippi. Take Florida in this match up giving only 5.5 points for three stars.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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