NCAA Basketball
Premium Edition |
December 19, 2005 |
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darrell,
Off our 3-0 day on Saturday, we come back with two games tonight.
Good luck , darrell!

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*Liberty +17 over MISSISSIPPI ST (4:45 Eastern)
On paper this looks like an even bigger mismatch than the spread would indicate. But, Missippi State has shown signs of weakness this season. They really should be 9-0 right now with the schedule they've played instead of 7-2. And, two of their seven wins were near misses that required OT. They've been double digit favorites twice thus far this season and they lost both ATS (Arkansas 5 point win as 10 point favorites and Troy State 11 point win as 12.5 point favorites). Big double-digit underdogs that are getting outscored by >4 points per game facing a team that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points per game and off a high-scoring game (95+ points) are 22-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons. One star on Liberty
*STANFORD -8.5 over Denver (10:00 Eastern)
This is not the same Denver team that made a run towards the NCAA tournament last season. They lost their guards to graduation and have a hard time finding adequate replacements to date. Yemi Nicholson is a still a formidable player in the middle, but he has little support this season, evidenced by recent losses to South and North Dakota State. Stanford are not world beaters either thus far this season, but they have more talent here and should take adavtantage of the Pios on the perimeter in this game. This is a must win for the Cardinal and I think they get a big W going away. One star on Stanford.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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