darrell,

The dog bit last night. Tonight we think it could happen again, at least in one of the matchups.

Good luck today...

*Houston +160 over ST. LOUIS (8:05 Eastern)

As has been the case a few times this playoffs, this line seems overly skewed to the favorite. Can you imagine getting +160 on Pettitte in this situation during the regular season? Sure, this is the hot St. Louis Cards and Carpenter is going. But, it's still value. St. Louis has won six straight but three of those came against the .500 Padres. Houston has won five of their last six so they are just about as hot. Pettitte is hotter than Carpenter. Outside of his last game against the Pads, Carpenter showed signs of wearing down. Against the Brewers on September 23rd and this Houston club on September 28th, he gave up 14 earned runs! Meanwhile, Pettitte has a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts and his road ERA this season is 2.76 - nearly as good as Carpenter's 2.65 home ERA! Houston thrives against great pitchers. They are 12-5 vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% over the last 2 seasons. While very dangerous after a loss, the Cardinals are a .500 club following a win this season (51-49). Finally, road underdogs of +150 or more with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game and a hot starting pitcher (WHIP <1.000 over his last 3 starts) are 31-15 (67%) since 1997. One star on the Astros.

*LA Anaheim +180 over CHICAGO SOX (8:05 Eastern)

Anaheim showed me something with that win yesterday. They were in a terrible position but they pulled out the win nonetheless. They were off a terrible travelling schedule, a big emotional win the night before, and they had their worst starter on the mound. No problem. This team apparently has a special toughness that can make all the difference in October. So, getting +180 here tonight is, like the other game, very good value. Mark Buehrle is tough, especially at home. But, the White Sox played sloppy last night. They dropped a game they never should have. Tonight they face Jarrod Washburn who put up a 2.65 ERA and 6-2 record on the road this season. The Angels are 10-1 on the road in night games when he pitched this season. Can the Angels handle Buehrle? I think so. Anaheim is 13-4 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better this season. Underdogs of +125 to +175 coming off a win are 44-33 in playoff games since 1997. These teams are too evenly mathed for this high of a money line. We'll take the value on the dog here for one star.