SUBSCRIBE

<< GO BACK

Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
October 5, 2005

darrell,

Two picks today as well as our thoughts on the playoffs with our 2005 MLB playoffs preview.

WUNDERDOG 2005 RESULTS
SPORT
STAR RECORD
$100/BET
49-25
66%
+$2,150
574-436
57%
+$2,609
32-25
56%
+$450
322-288
53%
+$490
TOTAL
 
 
+$5,849

Good luck today...

The Wunderdog

 
Premium Picks

2005 Baseball Playoffs Preview

Once again, very little changes this postseason as the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Astros, Cardinals, and Braves are back for little more October drama. The newbies, kind of, are the White Sox and Padres, though no one is surprised that these teams are here. The Padres are the worst in the bunch and face an enormous task against St. Louis in the first round. Payrolls and the ability to spend still dominate the sport which aids these clubs immensely.

There are some interesting match-ups as we head into the first round. The Angels won the season series over the Yankees and have the superior pitching here as well.  They’ll need Vlad to have a monster postseason to get by the Yanks, but we think he does it.  The most intriguing first round match-up is the Astros and Braves, and it should be a great series. We do not expect the Red Sox and Yankees to meet in the ALCS, as both of these teams have some serious chinks in their collective armour.

Best Starters
This one has to go to the Astros who boast the Rocket man, Oswalt, and Pettite, which is lethal in a five game series.  The problem with the Astros has been their inability to produce runs when it matters, while Atlanta is one of the most clutch teams in this playoff, and has many seasoned veterans who know how to win in the postseason. The Yankees seem to have fortified their rotation heading into the postseason, and the addition of Chacon has certainly helped and will prove huge should they get by the Angels. The Cards are somewhat Jeckyll and Hyde right now…see Matt Morris.

Best Bullpen
Hard to say here as they are all pretty formidable, that is why they have reached this juncture. The Yankees and Sox may have the shakiest pens of the bunch which will come into play, but it looks like the Angels, Astros, and Braves with the resurgence of Farnsworth are all pretty tough. The Cardinals continue to have a pretty solid staff all around but are vulnerable in spots.

Best Lineup
The Yankees and Red Sox are tied here, with a slight edge going to the Yankees. The problem with these line-ups is that they are too dependent on the long ball, and lineups that can produce runs often thrive the most this team of year. That being said, who can argue with AROD, Jeter, Giambi, and crew? On the other hand, you cannot dis Ortiz, Damon, Manny and Varitek. The Cardinals are the most potent in the NL but the Braves are not that far behind in terms of production 1-8.

Best Defense
Well, you have to like the Red Sox here with Renteria, Varitek, and Damon up the middle. We’ll, however, go with the Braves, who boast the best defensive center fielder in the game and a stellar duo up the middle as well with Furcal and Giles.  Chipper is very good at third, while LaRoche, Francoeur, and Langerhans have all been above average as well.

Outlook
Very hard to predict the outcome of the MLB playoffs at this juncture as a lot of luck comes into play in baseball. Take this for what it's worth but we think that in the AL, the Angels will get by the Yankees and then beat the Red Sox to advance to the Series. In the NL, we like St. Louis to beat Atlanta in seven and go on to win the 2005 World Series.

 Premium Picks

*ATLANTA/Houston UNDER 7.5 Runs (4:05 Eastern)

The last time Andy Pettitte faced Tim Hudson in the playoffs Pettitte was hurling for the Yankees and Hudson was throwing for the Angels. It was 2001 and the final score was 2-0. Will more than two runs be scored today? Probably. But, we see it staying under 7.5 easily. In the last three starts against Atlanta with Pettitte on the mound, the Braves scored an average of three runs per game. Over his last three starts, Pettitte has a 1.96 ERA. Tim Hudson has given up an average of 2.7 runs in 7 innings at home this season. We know Houston doesn't score much on the road anyhow. The Astros are 23-12 UNDER on the road as an underdog this season. Atlanta is 12-2 UNDER at home in the second half of the season vs. winning teams. The Braves lost four straight to close out the regular season and October games involving a team off 3+ consecutive losses have gone UNDER 71% of the time (62-26) since 1997. One star on a low scoring affair here.

*CHICAGO WHITE SOX -108 over Boston (7:05 Eastern)

Whoa. The White Sox sent a message last night. In cruising to their sixth straight win, they scored 14 runs and gave up just two. They feel they aren't getting any respect and they earned some last night. Jose Contreras shut down the World Champs who have shown they are nothing more than a .500 team on the road. Tonight Mark Buerhle looks to give the White Sox a 2-0 lead. He's coming off his best season ERA-wise and he's 4-2 vs. the Sawx. He's put up a 2.48 home ERA this year and over his past three it has dropped to 2.18. David Wells has been average at best this year for Boston. His ERA on the road has been 5.51 and much of Boston's road problems stem from a bullpen that has a 6.07 road ERA. Stats-wise with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season, after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games are 156-60 (72%) over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago here for one star.
Resources
MLB Baseball Resources
 
Up-to-Date Major League Baseball ATS Records
  Major League Game-of-the-Day Preview
  Live Major League Baseball Lines
  Major League Baseball News
  Discount Sporting Event Tickets

Pass It On
How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
Pass It On

Tell a Friend


If you find this information useful, please
Tell A Friend about the newsletter.

Manage Your Subscriptions

Are you getting exactly the newsletters you want?

Choose from NFL, College Football, NCAA Basketball, NBA, MLB, NHL, Horse Racing & Poker

To stop receiving this or add yourself to other sports picks or poker newsletters, change your email preferences or view your account/order history, go to your Subscription Management Page here.

The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk. Subscription to this newsletter is predicated on acceptance of Wunderdog Sports Picks website terms.

Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

Baseball picks from freeunderdog.com

877.DOG.WINS
P.O. Box 45
Golden, CO 80402