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MLB Baseball
Premium Edition |
September 13,
2005 |
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darrell,
After
yesterday's 2-3 star-based effort, September run
is now 28-12. Two picks
tonight.
View
past 2005
MLB picks.
Good
luck today...

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*CHICAGO
CUBS -230 over Cincinnati (8:05 Eastern)
Big
line but still good value here as Carlos Zambrano
goes for the Cubbies. He's got a 3.18 overall
ERA and 2.34 ERA at home this season. In his
13 home starts, he's gone 6-1 and allowed just
64 hits and 24 earned runs in 92.3 innings.
He's 5-3 against the Reds with a 2.33 ERA.
Eric Milton on the other hand has a 6.63 ERA
and 7.14 ERA against the Cubs. The pitching
is so important here since both offenses are
very cold right now. Road underdogs
allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season
after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games
are just 30-76 (28%) since 1997. They just
can't keep that kind of defense up, especialy
with Milton on the mound. One star on Chicago.
*LA
DODGERS -113 over Colorado (10:10 Eastern)
Who
woke up the Dodgers? They've reeled off wins in five
of their last six games. Don't look now but the
Blue are making one last ditch
effot to catch the Padres, and after last night's
SD game, we can see that happening. The Dodgers
were embarassed by the Rockies only a few short weeks
ago and come in with much more to prove than the
Green Rox. The Dodgers really cannot afford any screw
ups in this series, and frankly, we expect them to
sweep here. They'll need their momentum
and motivation tonight with Edwin Jackson on the mound
vs. Sun Woo Kim. Kim has pitched very well for Colorado
but
the
Rockies offense, after a bit of a late season burst,
has returned to horrible, especially on the road.
Colorado has scored just 12 runs in their last six
games including zero last night against LA. Not a
good sign for the Rockies as they are just 3-17
in road games
after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.
They are also 10-31 on the road following a loss
this year and 0-11 as a road underdog of +100 to
+125. The nice little Colorado run has taken at least
a break and we expect them to lose again tonight.
One star on Los Angeles.
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How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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Good Luck.
The
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