darrell,

Two picks tonight.

View past 2005 MLB picks.

Good luck today...

Baltimore eased their terrible skid last night with a 7-0 victory over Toronto. The Jays bounce back tonight, though, in the rubber match. Two rookies go tonight and both have been blasted in their starts. Pretty much a wash there. So, we look to the bullpens and hitting. Toronto's pen sports a 3.56 home ERA while Baltimore's is 4.12 on the road. Both teams are struggling offensively with Baltimore putting up just 3.3 over their last seven games and that includes the 7 run performance last night. Toronto is scoring 3.4 over their last seven, but again, that includes their 0 run performance. So, while both are struggling, if you take away last night Toronto is in better shape. A lot of this one comes down to home field advantage. Road teams with good fielding starting a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.700 or worse on the season are just 15-57 (21%) over the last 5 seasons. One star on the Jays.

Washington is not looking forward to this game. Their struggling offense doesn't need to see John Smoltz. Smoltz has allowed just 19 hits to the Nats in 22 innings this season. He's 6-0 vs. Washington with a 1.66 ERA and he's been great at home this year. Big offensive disparity here as Washington has managed just 2.4 runs per game over their last seven games while Atlanta scores 5.2 per game at home. Smoltz is money as a big favorite ( 33-7 at -175 to -250 since 1997) and he's 22-3 vs. NL teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse over that same span. One star on the Braves.