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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
August 30, 2005

darrell,

2-1-1 plus a rain-out yesterday. Two picks tonight.

View past 2005 MLB picks.

Good luck today...

The Wunderdog

 
Premium Picks
**ATLANTA -137 over Washington (7:35 Eastern)

This line is too low, and we should jump early here. Patterson has pitched well in the second half, but the but the Nats still have some trouble putting runs on the board. Silva has had a nice second half for the Braves, who are getting healthy at the right time seemingly. We are starting the really like the Braves chances in the postseason. They are scoring 5.3 per game at home while Washington manages just 4.1 on the road and 3.9 vs. right handed starters. Over their past seven games, the Nats have scored just 3.0 per game. That's not good for them because they don't fare well in low scoring games. They are just 3-26 over the past two seasons after 4 or more consecutive UNDERs. Also, underdogs at +100 to +150 off 2 straight games with no home runs starting a hot pitcher with an ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are only 12-49 (20%) since 1997. Two stars on Atlanta.

*Arizona +180 over SAN DIEGO (10:05 Eastern)

Regardless of Peavy, this is a big line. Vazquez has revived his career in the desert, and the Padres have been awful since June, struggling to hold onto to their division lead. Vazquez has always been tough against the Padres, putting up a 2.69 ERA against them in his career. Peavy on the other hand has struggled against the DBacks. We have two notches in Arizona's favor here which presents us with some great value. San Diego just can't score right now (averaging 3.7 per game at home this season and 3.6 overall on .240 hitting their last seven). Good value on the D-Backsso we'll back 'em for one star.

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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.

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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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