We've backed St. Louis in this situation several times this year with great results (after a loss in which their offense was weak). St. Louis lost last night and they are an incredible 40-8 following a loss this season. And, they are a perfect 18-0 following a loss in which they scored less than two runs. Washington does not have enough firepower to keep up here. They're averaging just 3.7 runs per game at home and against lefties and that won't cut it against a Cardinals team that puts up 4.8 per game on the road. Mark Mulder gets the call for the Cards and he's 15-3 this year as a favorite of -125 to -175 and 13-2 when the total is between 7 and 8.5. He's also 27-5 vs. poor power teams that hit under 1 home run per game since 1997. Two stars on the Cards.

Dontrelle Willis is hot and eyeing the Cy Young. But, today he faces the Cubs who have done well against their former teammate. Willis is just 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA vs. Chicago. The Cubs seem to get in his head, maybe because he tries too hard. Or, maybe it's because as bad as the Cubbies offense can be, they don't strike out often. Willis is 2-12 vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 2 seasons. Florida's been playing well of late but they don't seem to be able to continue that very long. THey are 4-15 this season following two straight games with no errors and 12-20 after 2 consecutive wins. One star on Maddux and the Cubs.

Bronson Arroyo is hot (3.72 ERA over last three) while Sean Douglass is not (8.44 ERA). Boston scores 6.3 at home while Detroit scores 4.7 on the road (huge 1.6 per game difference). Detroit's bullpen is very good but they are also very tired as they've been used extenisvely over the past few games. Boston is a ridiculous 21-3 at home during August over the past two seasons. Boston wins this one as they have better offense, better pitching and is too tough at home. One star on the Red Sox.

*MILWAUKEE +173 over Atlanta (7:05 Eastern)