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MLB Baseball Premium
Edition - August 24, 2005
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darrell,
Split
1-1 yesterday for a very slight loss. We got the win
with Anaheim and Clemens held up his end of the bargain
but got no run support
from
his team. Five picks tonight.
View
past 2005
MLB picks.
Good
luck today...
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***LA
Anaheim -112 over BALTIMORE (7:05 Eastern)
Prior
to a late comeback from Baltimore to make it close, Anaheim
was killing the O's last night. LA still won and we expect
them to win again tonight. Bartolo Colon has put up
a 3.45 road ERA this season and has been very hot lately
(2.45 ERA over his last three starts). He's 7-4 vs. the
Orioles. Erik Bedard has pitched well but last start
vs. Anaheim, he got blasted for 7 earned runs in 7.5
innings. And, over the last two seasons, he's 4-15 in
the second half of the season. Anaheim's offensive power
won the game last night
and it'll be in play again
tonight.
On
the
road,
they outscore Baltimore at home by nearly a full run.
LA is 33-18 as a favorite of under -150 this year and
16-8 when the total is between 7.5 and 8. They are also
20-4 in the second half of the season on the road vs.
losing teams over the past two seasons. Anaheim for three
stars here.
**St.
Louis -203 over PITTSBURGH (7:05 Eastern)
Chris
Carpenter baby! He wants that Cy Young and he's
pitching well enough to get it. This guy is 17-4
with a 2.29 ERA and is unbeaten in his last twelve
starts! He's done even better on the road with
a 1.93 ERA. He's also 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA vs. Pittsburgh.
Pitt had an uncharacteristically high-scoring game
last night, putting up 10 runs. But get this: The
Pirates are 1-18 after scoring
8 runs or more this season. Two stars on the Cardinals.
*MILWAUKEE
+159 over Florida (8:05 Eastern)
AJ
Burnett is about as hot as they come right now but
he might get upset today. Opposite Burnett is Tomokazu
Ohka who has been pitching very well himself of late
(2.21 ERA over his last three starts). If he can
hang with Burnett for a while, Milwuakee should win
this. Okha is 9-4 vs. winning teams this season so
he can pull this off. Milwaukee's bullpen is excellent
while Florida's is awful, especially
on
the road.
Milwaukee
tends
to put back-to-back good offensive games together
as they are 9-2 after scoring 9 runs or more this
season. One star on the Brew Crew.
*TEXAS
-132 over Seattle (8:05 Eastern)
Seattle
on the road in Texas with Ryan Franklin on the mound?
Pahlease! Franklin is 1-6 vs. Texasa with a 7.20 ERA.
In his last three starts, he's given up 32 hits and
15 runs in just 17 innings pitched. He's 5-20 over
the past three seasons on the road as an underdog.
Texas scores 6.1 runs per game at home. So, they should
break
out
of
their scoring slump tonight. Seattle is 1-10 this year
on the road vs. marginally losing teams (46%-49%).
One star on the Rangers.
*Boston
-220 over KANSAS CITY (8:10 Eastern)
KC
stole two from Oakland but Boston won't befall that fate
- at least not tonight. DJ Carrasco has to be shaking
in his boots. Over his last three starts he's got an 8.10
ERA and 0-2 record. Tonight he faces the Red Sox who score
5.2 on the road and 5.8 vs. right-handed starters. Matt
Clement goes for Boston and he's 11-3 this year including
5-1 on the road. Favorites of -200
or more having won 18 or more of their last
25 games with a good record (54% to 62%) are 104-23 (82%)
when playing a team with a losing record since 1997. One
star on the BoSox.
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a
How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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