*CINCINNATI
-112 over Arizona (1:15 Eastern)
The
rubber match features Eric Milton against Brad Halsey.
Both have struggled this season so if they pitch true
to form, this one is going to come down to bullpens and
offense. We
have
big
Cincinnati
advantages in both. The 'Zona bullpen has a 5.51 road
ERA with a 2-8 record. Cincy's sports a 4.33 home ERA
with a 13-4 record. Arizona scores 4.4 runs per game
on the road (and 4.2 vs. lefties) while Cincinnati scores
5.6 per game at home (4.7 vs. lefties). The 1.2 runs
per game difference is huge. As I mentioned, these starting
pitchers should give up a lot of runs. The OVER/UNDER
of 11 runs here backs that up. In high scoring games,
Cincinnati usually comes out on top because of their
offense. In games with a total of 10+ this season, they
are 18-10. Road teams in expected close games (+125 to
-125) starting pitcher who gives
up 7
or more hits/start backed up by a struggling bullpen
whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games are just 15-43
(26%) over the past five seasons. One star on the Reds
to take the game and the series.
*MINNESOTA
-150 over Seattle (2:10 Eastern)
Seattle
broke Minnesota's six game win streak last night with
an 8-3 win. Can the league's fourth worst visiting team
win two in a row on the road? Don't think so as the Twins
can't afford to drop two straight at home against this
team if they want to keep pace with Oakland for the AL
wild card. They'll put Brad Radke on the mound who has
a 2.69 home ERA this season. He's 18-3 since 1997 during
the second half of the season vs. teams that hit under
one home run per game. Seattle is
just 7-26 this season as a dog of +125 to +175 and
1-14 as a road
dog
of +150 to +175 the last two seasons. Seattle will put
Joel Pineiro on the mound who is 5-19 as an underdog
over the past two seasons. One star on the Twins.
*ST.
LOUIS -134 over San Francisco (2:15 Eastern)
St.
Louis goes for the sweep against Jason Schmidt. Schmidt
is keeping this line down but he's just 6-8 vs. the Cardinals.
The Giants must face Jeff Suppan who has come on big lately
putting up a 2.61 ERA over his last three starts. The Cardinals
offense will be too much for the Giants today. The Cards
are a much better team all around and this line represents
excellent value. One star on St. Louis.
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