darrell,

Three picks today. We like an under play as well as two big underdogs.

View past 2005 MLB picks.

Good luck today, darrell!

Which Sox will win? Not sure. But, do believe this will be a low-scoring game. In the last six games between these two ballclubs played in Boston, the UNDER has come through 4 times. Mark Buehrle comes in with a 2.79 ERA while David Wells has a 3.72 home ERA. If anyone can slow down the Boston bats at Fenway, it's Buerhle. He's 4-1 in recent starts vs. the Red Sox, sporting a 3.38 ERA. The White Sox also have one of the best road bullpens in the league. They've put up an incredible 2.49 road ERA this season. The White Sox are holding opponents to just 1.6 runs per game in their last five games! On the other side of things, Chicago has struggled to score recently, putting up just 2.9 runs per game over their last seven. Coming back to the White Sox bullpen, the Chicago is 13-0 UNDER when playing with a well rested bullpen (threw <2 innings in each of the last 3 games) this season. They are also 20-6 UNDER this season as an underdog and 14-2 UNDER 5 straight games in which they allowed 4 runs or less. The stats keep a comin... Chicago is 11-2 UNDER on the road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). Finally, games with a total between 8.5 and 10 featuring a road teams off 2 low-scoring games (3 runs or less) facing an opponent after a combined score of 17 runs or more have gone under 71% of the time since 1997 (39-16). Two stars on the UNDER tonight.

How can we go against Dontrelle Willis? Consider that he is 1-8 against NL West opponents over the last 2 seasons and a perfect 0-4 with an 11.40 ERA vs. the Giants. Willis also doesn't do well against teams that avoid the strikeout. He is 2-11 vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 2 seasons. Combine these stast with the fact that his counterpart, Noah Lowry has been pitching lights-out recently (posting a 2.08 ERA and 0.973 WHIP over his last three starts) and we have underdog value here. Florida's bats have gone cold, scoring just 3.9 runs per game over their last seven. So, this should be a low scoring game and in those, we always have a shot with the dog. One star on the live dog here.

The Brewers have dropped 4 of 5 while the Red has won 4 of 5. Cincinnati has gone from one of the worst road teams in the league to one of the better ones. Their current road winning streak of 8 is their longest in four years. This season overall they have done very well against marginal teams, going 8-1 (+9.6 Units) in road games vs. teams that are 46%-49% on the season. Milwaukee certainly has the pitching advantage here but Cincinnati has the momentum, confidence and the offensive advantage. The Brew Crew is really slumping on offense right now, capped by a 0-3 loss to St. Louis last night. Can they break out of it tonight? Consider that in games following their other 6 shutout losses this season, they are 0-7. They are also 5-19 at home after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 3 seasons. Cincinnati has the big emotional advantage tonight and we'll back them for one star.

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